Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

customer value, data analysis, marketing, measurement, modelling, optimisation, regression, statistics

Additional Analysis of SEOmoz web popularity data

21 October 2006

David Kirk

SEOmoz.org provide some great resources on search engine optimisation (“SEO”). Recently, they performed a really interesting analysis comparing actual site traffic for 25 sites that volunteered their data against indicators from a range of competitive intelligence metrics from sources such as Google PageRank, Technorati Rank, Alexa Rank and SEOmoz.org’s very own Page Strength Tool. The…
Read more: Additional Analysis of SEOmoz web popularity data
communication, modelling, operational risk

Models: there’s wrong and then there is Wrong

15 October 2006

David Kirk

One of my favourite quotes is by George Box: “All models are wrong, but some are useful“. If you work with models and understand their place in the universe, you may already agree with this too. However, there is more than one type of wrong, and while it is not always possible to tell which…
Read more: Models: there’s wrong and then there is Wrong
marketing, measurement

Measuring marketing for law firms

7 October 2006

David Kirk

I haven’t discussed measurable marketing initiatives yet, which is a shame because it’s one of the most important “fuzzy business decisions” that most companies assume don’t require hard analysis, measurement and good business judgement. There is a long-standing (and important) debate around whether creative advertisements achieve the stated objective of the advertising campaign. I don’t…
Read more: Measuring marketing for law firms
book reviews

Popular Economics

6 October 2006

David Kirk

The book, “Freakonomics”, has become something of a pop icon amongst certain groups. The Stevens (well, Steven and Stephen, Levitt and Dubner respectively) cleverly show how economic analysis can shed light on some interesting everyday (and not so everyday) problems and observations. I thoroughly enjoyed it while not agreeing with each and every word. Entertaining,…
Read more: Popular Economics
financial risk, hedging, optimisation

Over the Hedge and Underground

4 October 2006

David Kirk

When should companies hedge their exposure to financial and commodity risks? Is it always wrong or always right or somewhere in between? This topic arises every now and again when a goldmine is found to have made losses (and we’ll distinguish shortly between different types of “losses”) as a result of gold price increases when…
Read more: Over the Hedge and Underground
capital, capital structure, financial risk, life insurance

Life insurers getting WACC’d by debt issues

13 September 2006

David Kirk

Life insurers in South Africa have been stumbling over each other to issue long-term debt. The reason? Ostensibly to reduce their WACC and generate greater value for shareholders. Common sense tells us that this is a sensible thing to do. Companies all over the world have been using debt capital to reduce their WACC by…
Read more: Life insurers getting WACC’d by debt issues
Actuarial and Risk, news

Almost Famous

12 September 2006

David Kirk

Not quite rockstar material yet, but my fame is spreading, at least in The Actuary, the magazine of the UK’s actuarial profession. Check out the mention of my involvemet in the launch of the South African version of the Actuarial Modelling course (CA2) in Pretoria during July. Overall, it went pretty smoothly – results are…
Read more: Almost Famous
news

Innovating and trusting

11 September 2006

David Kirk

Welcome to my blog. Only just set up the system and getting to know how it all fits together. Check back soon for my first post.
Read more: Innovating and trusting

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
40,000
by David Kirk
40,000. That’s the ballpark figure I usually work with as the minimum number of micro insurance policies required for scale. The expenses of running even… Read more: 40,000
IFRS17 may not kill off EV
by David Kirk
Will IFRS17 kill off Embedded Value (EV) reporting in Africa? Or will it finally bring Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) to life? I gave a… Read more: IFRS17 may not kill off EV

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