Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: currency risk

Actuarial and Risk, alternative investments, banking, complexity, credit risk, currency risk, economics, emerging risk, FinTech, inflation, insurance, InsurTech, legal risk, liquidity risk, managing uncertainty

Inflation, Bitcoin & Financial Risk – Does This Matter for Insurance?

17 March 2025

David Kirk

This is a bit off-topic from my usual discussions on insurance, risk, and capital modelling, but financial and economic risk matters deeply. And for insurers, we’ve seen how things can go very wrong. Hyperinflation, Currency Crises & Insurance Industry Collapse Hyperinflation destroyed Zimbabwe’s insurance sector, and decades later, it still hasn’t recovered. Currency crises in…
Read more: Inflation, Bitcoin & Financial Risk – Does This Matter for Insurance?
Actuarial and Risk, competition, complexity, creating value, currency risk, distribution, Emerging Markets, inflation, insurance, investments, life insurance

Familiarity breeds Complexity

7 March 2024

David Kirk

I’ve had reasons to think about Nigeria recently, in general but also from an insurance market and acquisition environment. I’ve helped several investors looking at Nigerian insurers over the years. Familiarity with the market and the expectations of these investors has bred complexity rather than contempt. This isn’t an easy diagnosis of land of plenty…
Read more: Familiarity breeds Complexity
banking, currency risk, economics, inflation, insight

Bitcoins, deflation and the slightly silly impact of loss

31 October 2017

David Kirk

I think Bitcoins and the Blockchain are amazingly cool. I still don’t think Bitcoins are a useful currency and I worry that many of Bitcoin’s biggests fans also like the gold standard, Austrian economics and some other crazy stuff. What impact will the loss of Bitcoins over time have on the economy?
Read more: Bitcoins, deflation and the slightly silly impact of loss
banking, book reviews, currency risk, economics, financial risk

Book Review: Bitcon – The Naked Truth About Bitcoin

12 October 2014

David Kirk

Jeffrey Robinson, the author of the well known book “Laundrymen” that I’m now reading, has written an engaging story about The Satoshi Faithful (as he calls them) supporters of Bitcoin and where their Faith is leading them stray. The book is called BitCon: The Naked Truth About Bitcoin and it doesn’t pull punches in deriding the…
Read more: Book Review: Bitcon – The Naked Truth About Bitcoin
banking, currency risk, news

Norway’s new bank notes

11 October 2014

David Kirk

Pretty far from a normal topic for this blog, but at least it relates to money. Norway has new banknotes or at least they will be 2017. Standard on one side and abstract, competition winning pixelated art on the other. Feels appropriately Scandinavian to me.
Read more: Norway’s new bank notes
credit risk, currency risk, economics, financial risk, inflation, news, unemployment

European deflation risks not deflating

9 October 2014

David Kirk

The UK Telegraph (and other sources) are highlighting the rising panic about Euro area deflation. For those Austrian / hard money / gold standard / bitcoin / generally poorly informed amongst you, it’s not that deflation is itself a problem, but that it creates scenarios of debt spirals increasing the real value of debt obligations and…
Read more: European deflation risks not deflating
banking, Basel III, credit risk, currency risk, economics, Emerging Markets, financial risk, inflation, investments

Argentina in default for second time in 13 years

31 July 2014

David Kirk

S&P declares Argentina to be in default for the second time in 13 years and the third in 25. Inflation is likely to hit 40% this year and the Peso has already lost a quarter of its value this year, measured against the US Dollar. Messages? This time isn’t different, sovereign debt crises happen all…
Read more: Argentina in default for second time in 13 years
Actuarial and Risk, Basel III, credit risk, currency risk, economics, Solvency Assessment and Management, Solvency II

Argentina teetering towards default

25 July 2014

David Kirk

I’ve been working with a few insurers and reinsurers on credit risk recently. We’ve had plenty of reasons to think about it, what with new regulations (SAM, Basel III) and South African government downgrades. However, sometimes I get the impression that credit risk is viewed as an academic risk, as something that happens to others,…
Read more: Argentina teetering towards default

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
40,000
by David Kirk
40,000. That’s the ballpark figure I usually work with as the minimum number of micro insurance policies required for scale. The expenses of running even… Read more: 40,000
IFRS17 may not kill off EV
by David Kirk
Will IFRS17 kill off Embedded Value (EV) reporting in Africa? Or will it finally bring Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) to life? I gave a… Read more: IFRS17 may not kill off EV

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