I’m not really that close to developments in the Chinese economy. It is a large, complicated beast that is quite different from our own. Over the last year or so I’ve heard more and more from people who generally speak sense that the debt levels in China and the awful investment projects used to show…
Unsecured credit explosion? Sure. Concerns about abuses and sustainability in this sector? Absolutely. But is overall domestic credit extension out of control? Are real interest rates negative? Is the global economy strong and steaming ahead? The answer to all these questions is “no”. Here is a graph produced from public reservebank data.
So I may need to revisit my prediction about Bitcoin irrelevance. While they’re still an awful idea as a currency, they’ve had more attention this year than last. To reiterate the point about how awful they are as a currency, let’s take the price movement over the last few days. From the peak (yes, I…
Bitcoins are an awful idea as a currency. The 21m fixed limitation on bitcoins in a hopefully growing economy requires deflationary prices. Deflationary prices in turn discourage consumption and encourage hoarding. Low consumption and hoarding lead to low economic growth, a decreased velocity of money and more deflation. But what about Bitcoins as an interesting…
From a number of sources (CNN, USAToday, FT) No Eurozone country, since the creation of the Euro, has ever instituted capital controls. It’s not really allowed, except in exceptional circumstances. Which goes to show the value of rules with exceptions for “exceptional circumstances”. Which is to say, not much. The cost to large depositors Deposits…
SocGen in worried about South African bonds, government borrowing, budget deficits and the economy as a whole. “Volcano Eruption” is the phrase they used. That’s not subtle stuff. A few other analysts quoted in the article and more bullish on the Rand and downplay risks for South Africa. I don’t feel that there is much…
So Cyprus has been in the news. Looks like they’re trying to create a blueprint for bank-runs and Euro exits. So far, this is the timeline. I may update this over the next few days, depending on how the story unfolds. Announcement of a “levy” on all deposits with Cypriot banks. Â All. Doesn’t matter if…
Unfortunate technical catastrophe, but still irrelevant. (I’m referring to Bitcoins. Are you new here?)
