I love analogies. As analogies go, many things are well approximated by the “toss of a coin”. Gender at birth is not. And it’s not for two reasons, only one of which you can probably guess. The sex ratio at birth is not 1 boy to 1 girl. As of 2017, according to World Bank …
Category archives: news
The future is not as old as we thought
Expectations of future UK life expectancy have declined for several years now. This is not to say that current life expectancy has decreased, but rather than estimates of future mortality improvements are being lowered, pushing down future estimated life expectancy. One report indicates this change may roll back a year of expected mortality improvements. So …
A private exhumation
Is this blog dead? No, but you could be forgiven for thinking so. I will be posting a little more frequently than over the last year. That isn’t a high bar. Given the long silence, there are quite a few topics I’ve been thinking about and discussing with friends and colleagues. You’ll have to check …
Move over cholera, here’s the Black Death
The Black Death, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, wiped out 30 to 50 percent of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1351 Now, South Africa has been placed on high alert for a potential plague infection. Mortality rates are estimated anywhere between 30% and 100% without treatment. Many estimates are towards the top end of this …
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Collective nouns for cats
In my ASSA convention presentation on systemic risk last week, I took pains to highlight the difference between real systemic risk and mere catastrophic claim risk or even concentration risk. In this post I will cover these and other cats, the place of reinsurance including “feelings” and why this is hyper relevant for captives. To …
reserve discount and inflation part 3 is still coming
I need a little more time (read: a weekend) to finish the third part of my series on inflation and discounting for non-life claims reserves. Keep an eye out for it next week, along with some posts on systemic risk, equity investments and risks to pension fund sponsors and a book review.
Life in our time of cholera?
I love to read, so I’m not proud to admit right upfront that everything I know about “Love in the time of cholera” I learnt in 3 minutes from wikipedia starting about 3 minutes ago. Seems like a book I should read. But another than playing on the well known book and movie title, this …
31, 151 and what comes next
This is my first new post in over two years. There are many reasons for that, and I may get into that in a future post. As to why I’m restarting – a conversation with an old friend last night combined with a lunch discussion with an actuarial student a couple of weeks ago has …