As a consulting actuary who has spent considerable time analysing population trends, I’ve observed growing consensus among demographers that we’re heading toward a fundamentally different demographic future than what we’ve experienced over the past century. The data is compelling: global population will likely peak sometime this century before beginning a sustained decline – a phenomenon…
Parametric insurance has been growing as a tool to manage risk transfer. This may become even more important as risks become more difficult to insure, and the basis risk becomes more palatable. Parametric insurance is showing signs of being ready for prime-time. Greater demand due to climate change, and greater supply as more entities and…
The world of group supervision for South African insurers is surprisingly immature for regulations that have been in place for 6 years. [All of this post applies as of May 2024. Regulations may have changed between then and the time you are reading this.] I started this journey investigating Insurer Capital Standards (ICS) as a…
I’ve had reasons to think about Nigeria recently, in general but also from an insurance market and acquisition environment. I’ve helped several investors looking at Nigerian insurers over the years. Familiarity with the market and the expectations of these investors has bred complexity rather than contempt. This isn’t an easy diagnosis of land of plenty…
What does Business Rescue mean for credit risk, ratings and cross-default? Business Rescue precludes creditors from applying for liquidation of the business. This is the removal of an existing right of lenders: “a temporary moratorium on the rights of claimants against the company or in respect of property in its possession” From what I gather…
The Brookings Financial and Digital Inclusion Project measures South Africa one place behind Kenya in terms of financial inclusion. I’m still working my way through the full report, but Kenya’s score is a significant jump above South Africa and the closely contested positions below it. Is Kenya genuinely making such inroads or is this a…
I know of far too many actuaries who think that the “average” SA85/90 table is an appropriate base for their insured lives mortality assumption. It’s not. It’s also a good example of “actuarial sloppiness”. To be specific, it is equally inappropriate if your current experience is a reasonable fit for the combined SA85/90 table. SA85/90…
S&P declares Argentina to be in default for the second time in 13 years and the third in 25. Inflation is likely to hit 40% this year and the Peso has already lost a quarter of its value this year, measured against the US Dollar. Messages? This time isn’t different, sovereign debt crises happen all…
