Binary vs “vanilla” bets and hedging

Nassim Taleb, an author who usually inspires (except in his second book, Black Swans) has co-authored a paper with a long-tailed title “On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research”. The paper isn’t paygated so check it out – it’s only 6 pages so definitely …

Drones, inequality and the end of the Age of the Gun

Here’s a mind-tickling quasi science fiction story about a future world of plenty derived from cheap autonomous robots. Well, plenty for some and medieval peasanthood for most. I was having a discussion with a bright young colleague about the Venus Project, whether as a planet we have sufficient resources, capital and technology to meet all …

How to force a conclusion from a study [updated]

So a study commissioned by the alcohol industry demonstrates that banning alcohol adverts will be a bad thing.  Consider me unsurprised and cynical. I don’t know that the impact would necessarily be positive. I don’t know how much of an impact banning ads will have on consumption, but it does seem that the alcohol industry …

Link shortening madness

URL shorteners are handy when space is limited, but each one adds another fatal point of failure. To make the point, if I want you to read about New Business Margin on Revenue. And by the way you should because it’s an important newish concept, the link will work provided your internet connection is working, …

SAM Update on ORSA, Internal Models and Business Impact

I’m giving another SAM presentation at an Aon Client Day in a couple of hours. I only have 40 minutes so will be cramming in some big ideas into a short space. Some key messages: Internal Models are becoming more problematic and less attractive in the UK as well as SA. Good reasons remain for …