Binary vs “vanilla” bets and hedging

Nassim Taleb, an author who usually inspires (except in his second book, Black Swans) has co-authored a paper with a long-tailed title “On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research”. The paper isn’t paygated so check it out – it’s only 6 pages so definitely […]

Drones, inequality and the end of the Age of the Gun

Here’s a mind-tickling quasi science fiction story about a future world of plenty derived from cheap autonomous robots. Well, plenty for some and medieval peasanthood for most. I was having a discussion with a bright young colleague about the Venus Project, whether as a planet we have sufficient resources, capital and technology to meet all […]

Zim cash shortages

Zimbabwe seems to be experiencing some isolated (for now) cash shortages. This was a concern around election time. There was a risk that citizens, fearing uncertainty around the reintroduction of the Zim Dollar might have withdrawn their deposits and borrowed as many dollars as they could. There has been limited talk of the reintroduction of […]

How to force a conclusion from a study [updated]

So a study commissioned by the alcohol industry demonstrates that banning alcohol adverts will be a bad thing.  Consider me unsurprised and cynical. I don’t know that the impact would necessarily be positive. I don’t know how much of an impact banning ads will have on consumption, but it does seem that the alcohol industry […]