Nassim Taleb, an author who usually inspires (except in his second book, Black Swans) has co-authored a paper with a long-tailed title “On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research”. The paper isn’t paygated so check it out – it’s only 6 pages so definitely …
Category archives: Predictions
2012 Predictions Update
I’ve finally updated my predictions page for some of the predictions I made last year that can now be called. I haven’t made new predictions for 2013 yet; I still need to take the time to do the analysis I want to make predictions I’m relatively sure of. I learnt a few obvious things when …
Different types of predictions
As part of the run-up to my overview of my own predictions for 2012, I thought i should highlight why I bother at all. Most predictions, most of the time, will be wrong. Crystal balls aside, it is nearly impossible to reliably, accurately predict future complex events. However, the process of rigorously considering what might …
Prediction: Solvency II won’t be live before 2015
Maybe it doesn’t feel like a brave prediction, but the official word is still Jan 2014. But this is me sticking my pole in the sand – there’s too much uncertainty, too much politics going on to get this right in time.
Prediction: Spanish yields to end week higher
This one is a mini prediction. The sort of foolish short-term market movement calls that I think are usually such a waste of time. But there is an angle here I’m exploring. Spanish yields have been climbing for months now on the very real risk of Euro breakup and Spanish default (at least in Euros). …
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Policy should include clear views on how it will be measured
This is getting ridiculous. Shockingly bad policy is now being shown empirically to be shockingly bad. Only thing is, the policy proponents aren’t admitting they were wrong. I get randomness. I understand that we don’t know exactly where the UK would be without austerity policies. We don’t have a control group, there’s no clear comparison. …
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Prediction: US ten year yields will be below 7% up until 2016
Bloomberg story: Vanguard Group Inc., whose $148.2 billion of Treasuries makes it the largest private owner of US debt, says the nation has until 2016 to contain its borrowings before bond investors revolt and drive up interest rates The interesting thing here is that many people have said this would happen in 2009. And 2010. …
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Prediction Update : US Yields stayed low
In August 2011 I predicted that, against cries of hyperinflation and debt crisis in the US, yields would stay low. Specifically, I said: Prediction: If the US debt is downgraded in the next 6 months, yields won’t increase by more than 0.2% 6 months after the downgrade. In other words, there might be a small, …