Binary vs “vanilla” bets and hedging

Nassim Taleb, an author who usually inspires (except in his second book, Black Swans) has co-authored a paper with a long-tailed title “On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research”. The paper isn’t paygated so check it out – it’s only 6 pages so definitely […]

Different types of predictions

As part of the run-up to my overview of my own predictions for 2012, I thought i should highlight why I bother at all. Most predictions, most of the time, will be wrong. Crystal balls aside, it is nearly impossible to reliably, accurately predict future complex events. However, the process of rigorously considering what might […]

Policy should include clear views on how it will be measured

This is getting ridiculous.  Shockingly bad policy is now being shown empirically to be shockingly bad. Only thing is, the policy proponents aren’t admitting they were wrong. I get randomness. I understand that we don’t know exactly where the UK would be without austerity policies.  We don’t have a control group, there’s no clear comparison. […]

Prediction: US ten year yields will be below 7% up until 2016

Bloomberg story: Vanguard Group Inc., whose $148.2 billion of Treasuries makes it the largest private owner of US debt, says the nation has until 2016 to contain its borrowings before bond investors revolt and drive up interest rates The interesting thing here is that many people have said this would happen in 2009.  And 2010. […]

Secured By miniOrange