Figuring out the future and the now

In what should be a surprise to nobody, US fertility has fallen to a century low.

The US has better population growth forecast than many countries, but is still facing long term headwinds. South Korea still is the most glaring example, but China will continue to see truly shocking population ageing and decline.

Declining populations are rapidly becoming the norm. Global population growth is slowing dramatically and will be negative by the second half of this century.

This may be a bigger driver of change in our lifetimes than climate change.

Actuaries should be dusting off their long term thinking, demographic modelling skills, understanding of economics and markets and yield curves, and penchant for scenario testing. This is a problem for us

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About David Kirk

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