I have a clear strategy for how not to lose money playing the Make a Million competition. As I explain it, you may come up with some smart tactics to win the competition and enhance your returns, but you’re on you’re own there.

So, how does one not lose money with the Make a Million competition?

*Don’t enter.*

You are overwhelmingly like to lose money if you enter this competition. I’ve said this before, and I’ve been right before. I’m right again.

There’s also the little idea that the structure of the Make a Million competition increases risks of financial meltdown

Let’s look at some hard statistics to show what I mean.

### Telling statistics (what they don’t show)

In the MaM presentation, the organisers include some interesting statistics about number of trades, trading activity and many other metrics.

*They don’t show average returns or performance.*

So let’s look at some of the numbers:

**Raw return data (excluding prize money) based on 2009 MaM competition.**

Average Return |
-11.49% |

Expected Loss |
R 1,149 |

Median Return |
-15.06% |

Mode Return |
-9.12% |

Probability of breaking even |
25.00% |

Probability of earning less than 10% |
83.00% |

Probability of doubling money |
1.78% |

Probability of winning |
0.20% |

Suddenly the competition doesn’t look so great, does it? (This isn’t the first time, here is my analysis of the Comedy and Tragedy that was the 2008 Make a Million competition.) Continue reading “How not to lose money in Make a Million”