In August 2011 I predicted that, against cries of hyperinflation and debt crisis in the US, yields would stay low. Specifically, I said: Prediction: If the US debt is downgraded in the next 6 months, yields won’t increase by more than 0.2% 6 months after the downgrade. In other words, there might be a small,…
It turned out the markets didn’t have an awful day. Italian bond yields are actually markedly down. So I was wrong about markets being ugly as a result of the ill-conceived plans for the Euro Zone. Call me stubborn perhaps, but I firmly believe the agreement is an awful one. It doesn’t address the primary…
In June, after explaining why Bitcoins were an overrated fad at best and a truly awful idea for a currency at worst, I conclued “Now I just need to find a way to short Bitcoins.“Check out the price dropping from aroudn $30 to below $5.
Although the original and long-planned date for the Gulf Monetary Union’s single currency was 2010, I’m putting my neck out once again and predicting that a currency union of all the current GCC countries won’t happen by end 2015. There are too many political problems, too much fallout from the Euro and, frankly, too many…
An update to this prediction of a few months ago. US yields are around 2.09% and are looking mighty far away from the point where S&P downgraded them (2.56%). I’m feeling pretty comfortable on this one.
S&P has downgraded the US from AAA to AA+. Is this economics? Is this politics? Is this accurate? All good questions. Does it matter? Not really. There may be some technical problems associated with the definition of “risk free” particularly when it comes to discounting cash flows at at “risk free curve”. The problem South…
If the Japanese story is one to go by, and so far it is, a downgrade of US debt by rating agencies will have hardly any impact. I don’t see what information the rating agencies have that everyone else doesn’t already have and despite tough economic times, I don’t see the US defaulting anytime soon.…
Prediction: Bitcoins will be irrelevant by 2013 and will never emerge from a very small niche market. In fact, they are already irrelevant today. This is what happens when open source supporters, crypto experts and privacy nuts think an understanding of C++ and maths equates to knowledge of economics and monetary systems. Oh, and add…
