Up up and away

Ok, up up, down, up, down down down, up up and away. I’ve been away furiously recruiting staff and working on QIS2 while completing a house move, so not much blogging recently. Should pick up again shortly. The other news is of course Spanish bond yields, which were heading for the stratosphere before the latest […]

Not only eggs will be broken

Volatility skew didn’t exist before the 1987 market crash. Before then, the assumptions of the Black-Scholes option pricing model were felt to be about right. Constant volatility, continuously tradeable instruments with no discontinuities in prices, independent returns from one period to the next. Then the market crashed downwards exhibiting leptokurtic, negatively skewed returns and large […]

No nationalisation, more certainty and probably higher taxes

There are times when I’m impressed with elements of government and the ANC. It took them far too long, they allowed too much debate and uncertainty, but their ultimate conclusions on nationalisation and how to direct additional mineral wealth back into the fiscus, further develop a beneficiation industry around the mining industry are solid. I […]

Lose a Million

The Make a Million competition, as I’ve mentioned before, is an awful idea. It doesn’t promote investing or even “normal” trading, but rather massive, speculative risk-taking trading because the prize for performing well is nothing and the prize for performing best is significant. I’m continually disappointed that Moneyweb continues to partner with this distraction. As […]

The ECB game

So you can now play at being in control of the EC. This game of monetary policy for the EU is relatively interesting and educational. Critically, and potentially most informatively of all, the game measures success by inflation being within target and low volatility alone. No mention of economic stability or unemployment. Very much like […]

Why S&P downgraded

I don’t think many serious investors care that S&P downgraded US debt. Bond yields are down (more on this in my next post), which means prices are up. US stocks are down, but that’s more about concerns about US and global economic prospects than the credit of the US government. Nevertheless, S&P did downgrade. Why? […]