This is really fantastic news. The Swazi King is apparently reluctant to accept the loan from South Africa because of the conditions imposed in the agreement. I was quite harsh in criticising the granting of the loan with only conditions for improvement far down the line. (I still believe the first condition should be an […]
Greek probability of default, under some models and assumptions, is at 98%, which is easily within the margin of error of 100% given only marginally different assumptions of Loss Given Default.
National Treasury is mulling Deposit Insurance with an explicit charge on the banks. This is not a new idea, and has historically been resisted by the major banks since they feel, generally rightly, that they are less likely to have a problem of confidence and therefore less likely to benefit from deposit insurance. Smaller banks, […]
Story about the difference between the objectives of S&P and Moody’s ratings. Didn’t realize this before.
I don’t think many serious investors care that S&P downgraded US debt. Bond yields are down (more on this in my next post), which means prices are up. US stocks are down, but that’s more about concerns about US and global economic prospects than the credit of the US government. Nevertheless, S&P did downgrade. Why? […]
So far so good. The 10 year government bond yield has decreased even further in the face of S&P’s downgrade. Only 5 months 29 days to go, but so far I’m feeling confident.
It’s easy to get yourself into a corner if you make decisions without a sound basis. More than that, it’s really hard to change your mind if there was never a basis for the decision in the first base. Or if you don’t want to be honest about what the basis is. What am I […]
S&P has downgraded the US from AAA to AA+. Is this economics? Is this politics? Is this accurate? All good questions. Does it matter? Not really. There may be some technical problems associated with the definition of “risk free” particularly when it comes to discounting cash flows at at “risk free curve”. The problem South […]