What happened to the Grexit?

More on this and developments in bond yields over the next few weeks. Greek (and Italian and Spanish) bond yields are down. Credit ratings have stopped deteriorating and Greek ratings have even improved recently. Certainly a temporary stability as emerged and the political noises are less worrying than they were a few months ago. Would […]

Damned if you do

I almost feel sorry for the credit ratings agencies. Sure, their business model is fraught with conflicts of interest and the daily opportunity for ethical disasters.  Maybe they totally underestimated the risk inherent in MBS and demonstrated a complete lack of ability to understand correlation, diversification and outliers. Sure, their ratings have been shown to […]

A post about a post about accounting standards

The IASB and FASB are trying to get their heads around expected loss models for credit provisioning. I’ve seen some of what they’ve suggested over time and they really have had some odd ideas. Maybe this is one area where actuaries really are more comfortable since it’s our daily world. Anyway, to the point, it […]

Inevitable meltdown

Yes, government bond yields around the world are plummeting to all-time lows.  They’re falling through the floor as investors realise the global economy is about as close to the drain as it’s been even through the “Global Financial Crisis”. What do you mean “what about Greece and Spain”? Government bond yields are plummeting everywhere except […]

Not only eggs will be broken

Volatility skew didn’t exist before the 1987 market crash. Before then, the assumptions of the Black-Scholes option pricing model were felt to be about right. Constant volatility, continuously tradeable instruments with no discontinuities in prices, independent returns from one period to the next. Then the market crashed downwards exhibiting leptokurtic, negatively skewed returns and large […]