So Cyprus has been in the news. Looks like they’re trying to create a blueprint for bank-runs and Euro exits. So far, this is the timeline. I may update this over the next few days, depending on how the story unfolds. Announcement of a “levy” on all deposits with Cypriot banks. Â All. Doesn’t matter if…
The last month hasn’t been pretty for economic performance, credit or retail sales. Everyone from Richemont to Mr Price has taken a beating. Woolies is down about 13% in the last month. And now both Capitec and African Bank are reporting worse default experience (respectively through temporary strike-blips or through a cyclical downwards trend) and…
More on this and developments in bond yields over the next few weeks. Greek (and Italian and Spanish) bond yields are down. Credit ratings have stopped deteriorating and Greek ratings have even improved recently. Certainly a temporary stability as emerged and the political noises are less worrying than they were a few months ago. Would…
I almost feel sorry for the credit ratings agencies. Sure, their business model is fraught with conflicts of interest and the daily opportunity for ethical disasters. Maybe they totally underestimated the risk inherent in MBS and demonstrated a complete lack of ability to understand correlation, diversification and outliers. Sure, their ratings have been shown to…
The IASB and FASB are trying to get their heads around expected loss models for credit provisioning. I’ve seen some of what they’ve suggested over time and they really have had some odd ideas. Maybe this is one area where actuaries really are more comfortable since it’s our daily world. Anyway, to the point, it…
Ok, up up, down, up, down down down, up up and away. I’ve been away furiously recruiting staff and working on QIS2 while completing a house move, so not much blogging recently. Should pick up again shortly. The other news is of course Spanish bond yields, which were heading for the stratosphere before the latest…
So the “right party” wins the election in Greece supporting the bail out. Â Good news? No, not really. The ECB and European (aka German) policies on Greece are doomed to fail. I tweeted this morning that all I don’t see any good news, but I can small straws burning. Those are the straws that are…
Yes, government bond yields around the world are plummeting to all-time lows. Â They’re falling through the floor as investors realise the global economy is about as close to the drain as it’s been even through the “Global Financial Crisis”. What do you mean “what about Greece and Spain”? Government bond yields are plummeting everywhere except…
