It’s easy to get yourself into a corner if you make decisions without a sound basis. More than that, it’s really hard to change your mind if there was never a basis for the decision in the first base. Or if you don’t want to be honest about what the basis is. What am I…
S&P has downgraded the US from AAA to AA+. Is this economics? Is this politics? Is this accurate? All good questions. Does it matter? Not really. There may be some technical problems associated with the definition of “risk free” particularly when it comes to discounting cash flows at at “risk free curve”. The problem South…
If the Japanese story is one to go by, and so far it is, a downgrade of US debt by rating agencies will have hardly any impact. I don’t see what information the rating agencies have that everyone else doesn’t already have and despite tough economic times, I don’t see the US defaulting anytime soon.…
So Swaziland is in a whole heap of economic and political trouble; South Africa’s loan isn’t going to change any of that in the long run. The way the global economy looks at the moment, there’s no particular reason to think that the SA economy is going to be anything better than stagnant over the…
Swaziland vs Greece? More like Swaziland and Greece: Linked to a currency they can’t control Potentially devastating consequences if they devalue their currency and move away from the peg Fiscal irresponsibility A small country relative to their economic neighbors Except Swaziland has a dictator in charge and gets a bail-out without serious conditions and at…
Several years ago, at the height of the thermonuclear phase of the Global Financial Crisis (compared to the slow radiation death we’re experiencing at the moment) a colleague of mine poured scorn on the US as an economy and looked towards the mighty powerhouse of Europe as an example of How To Do Things Right.…
It’s chock-full of analysis, numbers, tables and charts showing how as much as things change, the scope for financial crises changes very little. The comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets is particularly interesting in that the differences, while they do exist, are far smaller than stereotypical views. Emerging Markets do tend to have more ongoing…
South Africa has been approached for a loan to Swaziland, rumoured to be in the R10bn ballpark. Swaziland’s economy is teetering. Amongst other causes, HIV/AIDS is probably worse than any other place on the planet. But most shockingly of all, it’s still a monarchy with political parties banned. If we lend them money, we probably…
