Complexity
Found a new quote: For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H L Mencken.
Found a new quote: For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H L Mencken.
Apparently the results for QIS3 are now available. Â QIS3 (“Quiz 3”) is the third Quantitative Impact Study along the path to rolling out Sovlency II for insurance companies between 2010 and 2012. It provides further light on what capital requirements will actually be when Sovlency II comes into effect. Perhaps a warning is required for…
I was reading the recent news about ICBC’s large investment in Standard Bank and had a thought. If Standard Bank’s shares are suspended from trading, why not plunge into Satrix Fini? If you really wanted to get fancy, you could probably find SSFs on most of the other large players within the Satrix Fini (a…
Haven’t even had time to read this properly myself yet, but Moneyweb has an update on Rudco: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page91?oid=168027&sn=Detail
Iafrica has a story about a court battle against different state retirement ages. Can’t imagine this will go far in the short-term, but might be the beginning of a serious relook at normal retirement age, for men and women, and in in light of trends of extended retirement periods through “mortality improvements”. Mortality improvement is the lowering of mortality over time as a result of several causes, including better medical care, awareness of the dangers of smoking etc. http://business.iafrica.com/news/540145.htm A two-day hearing of a case brought by a group of men challenging the unequal provision of the state old age pension to men at 65 and to women at 60 will begin on Tuesday.
Business Report is running a story about the shareholder agreement between government and SBC that impacted South Africa’s telecommunications environment. Ann Crotty (from Business Report) writes: The shareholders’ agreement signed by the government when it sold a 30 percent stake in Telkom to the Thintana Communications consortium placed both companies above South Africa’s laws, according…
Amongst the stormy seas of markets recently (off the back of a credit and liquidity crunch apparently initiated by ongoing and deepening problems with sub-prime loans in the US and the related CDOs), bobs the grey and bloated bodies of a clichéd failure. Unwavering belief in trends, normal market conditions and trading rules developed out…
I’ve added the result of a quick random generation of possible outcomes of two types of individuals. This is not Monte Carlo simulation as has been discussed below, but rather a very simple illustrative example. This will further illustrate the points about in my previous post (and do also read the comments for some more…
