Statistics and sampling are fundamental to almost all of our understanding of the world. The world is too big to measure directly. Measuring representative samples is a way to understand the entire picture. Popular and academic literature are both full of examples of poor sample selection resulting in flawed conclusions about the population. Some of…
Bitcoins are an awful idea as a currency. The 21m fixed limitation on bitcoins in a hopefully growing economy requires deflationary prices. Deflationary prices in turn discourage consumption and encourage hoarding. Low consumption and hoarding lead to low economic growth, a decreased velocity of money and more deflation. But what about Bitcoins as an interesting…
So Bitcoin’s had a good run recently, countering my prediction of irrelevance. Price is about $90 $108 per coin and total value of Bitcoins (hoarded mostly) worldwide is about a Billion US Dollars.
I was looking for an XKCD comic to insert into a presentation on insurance regulations. Yes, I do that. I came across a comic I hadn’t seen before and that also illustrates a fundamentally important point. Enjoy.
South Africa has a pretty rich history of banking failures. This paper, part of a masters, by Sipho Makhubela, provides an interesting over of banking failures since 1994. I haven’t read the entire paper yet, but Section 4 (starting on page 72) outlines the background behind banking failures in South Africa and is fascinating reading…
From a number of sources (CNN, USAToday, FT) No Eurozone country, since the creation of the Euro, has ever instituted capital controls. It’s not really allowed, except in exceptional circumstances. Which goes to show the value of rules with exceptions for “exceptional circumstances”. Which is to say, not much. The cost to large depositors Deposits…
I’m not sure about this fascinating article on birds evolving to avoid cars in the US. The story is that fewer cliff swallows are being killed on the roads AND those birds killed have longer than average wings. The argument here is that longer wings make for less agility, making the birds more likely to…
SocGen in worried about South African bonds, government borrowing, budget deficits and the economy as a whole. “Volcano Eruption” is the phrase they used. That’s not subtle stuff. A few other analysts quoted in the article and more bullish on the Rand and downplay risks for South Africa. I don’t feel that there is much…
