Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: insight

Actuarial and Risk, creating value, insight, managing uncertainty, modelling, optimisation, predictive modelling

Most decisions are made without all the information

30 August 2010

David Kirk

Tyler Reed blogs about entrepreneurs having to make decisions with limited information. It’s almost all unknown I don’t disagree.Â It’s just that almost every meaningful decision ever made is made without all the information. Unknowns can be categorised a hundred different ways. One way is to think about: Unknown past information Uncertainty around the current…
Read more: Most decisions are made without all the information
Actuarial and Risk, business tools, competition, creating value, economics, financial risk, insight, managing uncertainty, measurement, modelling, optimisation

5 Things to Learn from Monopoly

28 August 2010

David Kirk

I haven’t played Monopoly in a while (preferring Settlers of Catan, Carcasonne, Tigris and Euphrates and even Cranium), but after a recent conversation I started thinking about the game dynamics. There is surprisingly much that is relevant to the current story of our economy. 1 The Competition Commission is necessary Monopolies serve to increase prices…
Read more: 5 Things to Learn from Monopoly
banking, credit risk, currency risk, data analysis, economics, insight, managing uncertainty, market risk, news, predictive modelling

CPI at 3.7% for July 2010

25 August 2010

David Kirk

From Stats SA The headline inflation rate in July 2010 (i.e. the Consumer Price Index for all urban areas in July 2010 compared with that at July 2009) was 3,7% The official inflation rate (i.e. the percentage change in the CPI for all urban areas in July 2010 compared with that in July 2009) was…
Read more: CPI at 3.7% for July 2010
Actuarial and Risk, communication, data analysis, insight, measurement, predictive modelling, statistics

More on cars and colour

25 August 2010

David Kirk

In researching my previous post on accurately measuring the risks associated with vehicle crimes basedÂ on colour, I stumbled across another colour related risk measure. Red cars, supposedly, attract more than their fair share of traffic fines. Turns out this is incorrect.Â Snopes.com has (as usual) an excellent article on red cars, including references to…
Read more: More on cars and colour
Actuarial and Risk, data analysis, economics, insight, modelling, operational risk, optimisation, statistics

What other people want

23 August 2010

David Kirk

Apparently, car thieves don’t want your pink car. It’s not because they don’t like the colour (although they probably don’t). It’s also not only that it’s too distinctive and will be easily spotted (see the discussion later about red cars). It’s that nobody else wants it. The resale value is much lower than other vehicles,…
Read more: What other people want
economics, insight, news

The faces of COSATU

21 August 2010

David Kirk

Inspirational, courageous, challenging and for-the-people Vavi takes a dig at Zuma’s pay Cosatu deplores Aurora mine shootings Cosatu applauds housing probe Cosatu questions proposed Information Bill Slightly paranoid Cosatu accues government of fiddling with inflation figures to cheat workers out of a decent wage. Dazed and confused, paranoid and hypocritical Cosatu accues non-striking cops of…
Read more: The faces of COSATU
insight

Two pairs of other people’s shoes

21 August 2010

David Kirk

Everyone reading this post has pretty comfortable shoes. All it takes to know that is that you have internet access. Would you want to swap your shoes for those of a typical South African? Quite likely unemployed, living far from work and struggling with barely functioning public transport to get to work, reliant on public…
Read more: Two pairs of other people’s shoes
Actuarial and Risk, banking, Basel III, capital, creating value, credit risk, economics, financial risk, insight, market risk, measurement, news

Basel III likely to be tempered

24 June 2010

David Kirk

The FT has an article (Banks†‰win battle to tone†‰down Basel III) describing how the proposed new rules for banking capital requirements might have some of the new requirements around liquidity removed or weakened. Key amongst these new considerations is the limitation of mismatches between the term of assets and liabilities, which would limit the danger…
Read more: Basel III likely to be tempered

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
by David Kirk
Parametric insurance is often marketed as the “clean” alternative to traditional risk transfer. The pitch is compelling: if a hurricane hits a specific GPS coordinate… Read more: The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
40,000
by David Kirk
40,000. That’s the ballpark figure I usually work with as the minimum number of micro insurance policies required for scale. The expenses of running even… Read more: 40,000

Categories