Guidance for actuaries making decisions with Covid-19

Actuaries need to update estimates, contribute to the discussion on appropriate bonus levels and help make calls on new and existing products and pricing. There is usually more than enough uncertainty and we’ve developed a set of tools and heuristics and ways to go about this under normal conditions.

What happens when the conditions are nothing like normal? When changes are happening weekly rather than by the decade, and when the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future?

Covid-19 isn’t the only cause, but it is the sharp end of the wedge for the moment. It doesn’t help at all that Covid-19 also makes it more difficult to reach out for assistance and sharing ideas between actuaries.

The Actuarial Society of South Africa has put out a document outlining some considerations that may apply, to help guide actuaries in making these difficult decisions.

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.

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