From the Bureau of Labour Statistics
Series Id:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force status:Â Â Civilian labor force participation rate Type of data:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Percent or rate Age:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 16 years and over
The above graph is possibly the most important number. Â How much economic activity are we losing because US citizens simply aren’t working? The unemployment rate is depressed because those discouraged workers who give up searching for work do not count as part of the labour force, thus not factoring into unemployment rate calculations.
The downtick in the unemployment rate looks to be in danger of being reversed, in spite of this “discouraged worker” bias.
Series Id:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status:Â Â Unemployment rate Type of data:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Percent or rate Age:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 16 years and over
It almost looks the following graph shows good news (it doesn’t, keep reading for the punchline.)
Series Id:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â LNS13008756 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (Seas) Number Unemployed for 5-14 Weeks Labor force status:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployed Type of data:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Number in thousands Age:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 16 years and over Duration : unemployed/laid off:Â Â 5 to 14 weeks
The reason this isn’t good news is that it’s not so much that those unemployed are returning to work, lowering the number of unemployed in this band, but rather there has been an inexorable march towards long-term unemployment. Â People are falling out of this band not into employment but into the 15+ weeks and ultimately the 27+ weeks band.
Series Id:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â LNS13008636 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (Seas) Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks & over Labor force status:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployed Type of data:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Number in thousands Age:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 16 years and over Duration : unemployed/laid off:Â Â 27 weeks and over
All this translates to an ever-increasing average weeks unemployed.
Series Id:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â LNS13008275 Seasonally Adjusted Series title:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (Seas) Average Weeks Unemployed Labor force status:Â Â Unemployed Type of data:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Number of weeks Age:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 16 years and over
This is ugly stuff. Â Being unemployed for 27 weeks, let alone 40 and beyond starts to have longer term impacts on “employability” and therefore structural unemployment.
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