This is not the best way to start serious analysis of models versus markets in the prediction space, but given that I’m writing an exam tomorrow I thought I should put the links out there now. I’ll address this topic again in the future.
Steven Levitt (of Freakonomics fame) discussed an old paper of his and its usefulness in predicting US mid-term elections. This is now a 16 year-old model, which presumably could benefit with some updating for the last 16 years worth of data.
It does, currently anyway, give very similar answers to one of the biggest prediction markets operating, InTrade.com.