So this is what a downturn looks like

May new car sales slump 23.4%

Tiisetso Motsoeneng from

Johannesburg – South African new vehicle sales extended the decline in May, falling by a massive 23.4%, or 12 095 units, to 39 533 units compared with the same month last year, an industry body’s new data showed on Tuesday.

SA’s CPIX not set to be on target before 2010 – central bank

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s key CPIX consumer inflation is unlikely to return to within the 3 to 6 percent target band before 2010, a senior central bank official said on Monday.

The targeted gauge jumped unexpectedly to a near 5-1/2-year high of 10.4 percent year-on-year in April, prompting hawkish comments from central bank Governor Tito Mboweni that boosted chances of a bigger-than-expected interest rate increase next week.

April CPIX jumps to 10,4%

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s targeted CPIX inflation rate quickened unexpectedly to a near 5-1/2-year high of 10.4 percent year-on-year in April from 10.1 percent in March, official data showed on Wednesday.

The all-items consumer price index (CPI) increased by an annual rate of 11.1 percent, compared to 10.6 percent in March, Statistics South Africa said.

Standard Bank data puts SA house prices in the red

The Standard Bank median house price index recorded a growth rate of -5,2% year-on-year in March, according to the bank’s Residential Property Gauge released today.

Commenting on the data, Standard says, affordability and valuation measures for South African residential property yield a broadly similar and consistent picture that provides some explanation with respect to the current state of the South African residential property market.

“Our findings indicate that residential property was relatively cheap in the late 1990s and in the first few years of the current decade. The combination of lower interest rates and the marked improvement in the country’s growth dynamic in an environment of relatively cheap/affordable residential property was the catalyst for a boom in residential property prices.?

However, from 2004 house price appreciation outperformed growth in income and rentals, suggesting a dislocation of house price growth relative to its fundamental drivers. “This signalled that house price growth was unsustainable at the 2004 to 2006 growth rates.?

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.

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