Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: statistics

communication, creating value, data analysis, economics, financial risk, hedging, insight, investments, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, statistics

Comedy and Tragedy

15 January 2009

David Kirk

What do the names Oneway, Bull, Kansvatter, Inthemoney, The Bull! and Millionaire in the making have in common? They’re all optimistic, aggressive names used in the Make A Million competition. They’re also, as of right now, all in the bottom ten out of nearly 300 entrants and have all lost everything but a few rand…
Read more: Comedy and Tragedy
Actuarial and Risk, competition, creating value, customer value, data analysis, insurance, measurement, modelling, regression, statistics

Presentation to ACAL on GI Pricing

23 October 2008

David Kirk

I gave a presentation on a holistic approach to ratemaking using predictive models yesterday to the Lebanese Insurance Association (ACAL, the acronym for the association in French). Over a hundred people attended, and there certainly seemed to be interest in the topic. A common response though was that Lebanon isn’t yet ready for that, because…
Read more: Presentation to ACAL on GI Pricing
business tools, credit risk, financial risk, managing uncertainty, measurement, news, predictive modelling, statistics

Country Foods, mushrooms and still not the Z

16 September 2008

David Kirk

Would you lend money to Country Foods Limited? According to the Z score perhaps you should have participated in the listing in October 2007. Based on their prospectus and audited financial results for the year to September 2007, their Z-score was high within the grey zone, within reach of the coveted “safe zone”. As recently…
Read more: Country Foods, mushrooms and still not the Z
currency risk, data analysis, economics, financial risk, insight, news, property, statistics

Economic indicators in pictures

30 August 2008

David Kirk

I struggled to find a decent data-set of past economic indicators off the web. I’m sure there’s an easier way, but I had to trawl the horrible formats of Stats-SA and the Reserve Bank to get the mangled data underlying this graph. Seems like Stats-SA is either deliberately obfuscating their data, or they’re working on…
Read more: Economic indicators in pictures
business tools, creating value, credit risk, data analysis, economics, financial risk, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, modelling, operational risk, optimisation, predictive modelling, regression, remuneration strategies, statistics

Don’t use Altman’s Z-score for managing a turnaround

25 August 2008

David Kirk

I attended workshop presented by the famous credit analyst and model builder, Professor Edward Altman. He is probably most famous for the invention of the seemingly immortal Z score, which is still in use 40 years after its creation in 1968. During the workshop, Professor Altman recounted a story about how a company managed themselves…
Read more: Don’t use Altman’s Z-score for managing a turnaround
data analysis, managing uncertainty, measurement, operational risk, statistics

Fraud and statistics

25 August 2008

David Kirk

Like most power tools, statistics can be dangerous if left in the hands of the ill-trained or inebriated. Unlike rotary saws and industrial angle grinders, when you abuse statistics you don’t damage the tool but you do damage the result. Fraud statistics This is a general observation, but I was reminded of it recently when…
Read more: Fraud and statistics
data analysis, economics, financial risk, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, news, operational risk, property, statistics

Pass me that nail would you

7 August 2008

David Kirk

A frequent comment about why “property prices will keep going up” is that: They aren’t making land any more Building costs keep going up Our population is growing If these points are true, then this would provide a strong force to push property prices up. It still wouldn’t mean property prices couldn’t decline. Citizens still…
Read more: Pass me that nail would you
currency risk, economics, financial risk, managing uncertainty, measurement, news, statistics

Zim currency to lose the billions. for now.

30 July 2008

David Kirk

CNN article on Zim’s currency billion for one consolidation
Read more: Zim currency to lose the billions. for now.

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
by David Kirk
Parametric insurance is often marketed as the “clean” alternative to traditional risk transfer. The pitch is compelling: if a hurricane hits a specific GPS coordinate… Read more: The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
40,000
by David Kirk
40,000. That’s the ballpark figure I usually work with as the minimum number of micro insurance policies required for scale. The expenses of running even… Read more: 40,000

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