Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: operational risk

Actuarial and Risk, banking, capital, credit risk, currency risk, financial risk, insurance, life insurance, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, operational risk

Allocating capital to insurance products

16 October 2009

David Kirk

A friend “volunteered” me to answer an insurance question from Aardvark on allocating economic capital across different insurance products. After writing a short response, I received the frighteningly useful message: “Error”. Having written a brief summary of the different techniques used in this really important area, I thought I should use it as a blog…
Read more: Allocating capital to insurance products
data analysis, insurance, managing uncertainty, measurement, operational risk, predictive modelling, statistics

Hijacking risk measures

27 February 2009

David Kirk

Statistics are dually known as useful and misleading. Another relevant saying is that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. photo credit: star5112 CAR magazine used to have a short section covering the number of complaints received from readers separated according to car brand. The problem with that sort of analysis is that it ignores…
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creating value, customer value, news, operational risk, property

Rudie still trucking and ducking?

26 February 2009

David Kirk

photo credit: johnnyalive A reader has some news, potentially about Rudie Visagie and another Rudco-style plan. Neither I nor the reader are sure about the details yet, but the story sounds all-too-familar. I read your article on the web when i googled Rudy Visagie. How very interesting to note all concerns people are having about…
Read more: Rudie still trucking and ducking?
business tools, communication, creating value, customer value, data analysis, distribution, marketing, measurement, operational risk, optimisation, predictive modelling

How not to do SEO

11 January 2009

David Kirk

Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) is an unfortunately necessary part of driving traffic to discover a website. Good content is necessary but not sufficient. Why SEO is necessary A large percentage of web traffic is directed by search engines. After all, this is how Google has become the giant company that it is. I tried to…
Read more: How not to do SEO
capital structure, credit risk, currency risk, economics, financial risk, insight, managing uncertainty, market risk, news, operational risk, predictive modelling, property

Visagie still around?

27 October 2008

David Kirk

A comment came in today on an old article about the dodgy lending scheme Rudie Visagie was proposing. The reader “trymore” provides some details of a new deal apparently being run by Rudie Visagie. As I stated last time this gentleman’s name came up, I have no personal interest or involvement here at all. My…
Read more: Visagie still around?
business tools, creating value, credit risk, data analysis, economics, financial risk, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, modelling, operational risk, optimisation, predictive modelling, regression, remuneration strategies, statistics

Don’t use Altman’s Z-score for managing a turnaround

25 August 2008

David Kirk

I attended workshop presented by the famous credit analyst and model builder, Professor Edward Altman. He is probably most famous for the invention of the seemingly immortal Z score, which is still in use 40 years after its creation in 1968. During the workshop, Professor Altman recounted a story about how a company managed themselves…
Read more: Don’t use Altman’s Z-score for managing a turnaround
data analysis, managing uncertainty, measurement, operational risk, statistics

Fraud and statistics

25 August 2008

David Kirk

Like most power tools, statistics can be dangerous if left in the hands of the ill-trained or inebriated. Unlike rotary saws and industrial angle grinders, when you abuse statistics you don’t damage the tool but you do damage the result. Fraud statistics This is a general observation, but I was reminded of it recently when…
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data analysis, economics, financial risk, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, news, operational risk, property, statistics

Pass me that nail would you

7 August 2008

David Kirk

A frequent comment about why “property prices will keep going up” is that: They aren’t making land any more Building costs keep going up Our population is growing If these points are true, then this would provide a strong force to push property prices up. It still wouldn’t mean property prices couldn’t decline. Citizens still…
Read more: Pass me that nail would you

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

Why Actuarial Model Migrations Are Hard
by David Kirk
Every few years, someone in the room says it. Maybe it is the new CTO. Maybe it is a consultant. Maybe it is you, staring… Read more: Why Actuarial Model Migrations Are Hard
The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
by David Kirk
Parametric insurance is often marketed as the “clean” alternative to traditional risk transfer. The pitch is compelling: if a hurricane hits a specific GPS coordinate… Read more: The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.

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