Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: modelling

business tools, creating value, data analysis, insight, investments, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, modelling, news, predictive modelling, property, statistics

Property investment – the value of data over opinions

1 September 2010

David Kirk

Lightstone have a trick up their sleeves. Their raison d’Ãªtre is collecting, analysing, understanding and packaging data for themselves and others to use to understand past, current and future property valuations. Their housing price index is more robust (and more independent) than those of the banks based off their own data and target markets. Rather…
Read more: Property investment – the value of data over opinions
Actuarial and Risk, creating value, insight, managing uncertainty, modelling, optimisation, predictive modelling

Most decisions are made without all the information

30 August 2010

David Kirk

Tyler Reed blogs about entrepreneurs having to make decisions with limited information. It’s almost all unknown I don’t disagree.Â It’s just that almost every meaningful decision ever made is made without all the information. Unknowns can be categorised a hundred different ways. One way is to think about: Unknown past information Uncertainty around the current…
Read more: Most decisions are made without all the information
Actuarial and Risk, business tools, competition, creating value, economics, financial risk, insight, managing uncertainty, measurement, modelling, optimisation

5 Things to Learn from Monopoly

28 August 2010

David Kirk

I haven’t played Monopoly in a while (preferring Settlers of Catan, Carcasonne, Tigris and Euphrates and even Cranium), but after a recent conversation I started thinking about the game dynamics. There is surprisingly much that is relevant to the current story of our economy. 1 The Competition Commission is necessary Monopolies serve to increase prices…
Read more: 5 Things to Learn from Monopoly
Actuarial and Risk, data analysis, economics, insight, modelling, operational risk, optimisation, statistics

What other people want

23 August 2010

David Kirk

Apparently, car thieves don’t want your pink car. It’s not because they don’t like the colour (although they probably don’t). It’s also not only that it’s too distinctive and will be easily spotted (see the discussion later about red cars). It’s that nobody else wants it. The resale value is much lower than other vehicles,…
Read more: What other people want
creating value, economics, insight, measurement, modelling, news, operational risk, optimisation

Return to mumbling

14 April 2010

David Kirk

In a previous post, Mumbling in the Dark, I argued that too much attention was being paid to Eskom’s proposed increased charges and too little at 5 separate points, the first being their actual cost of production. It seems that NERSA has been looking at this and has discovered some areas where Eskom was incorrectly…
Read more: Return to mumbling
communication, competition, creating value, customer value, distribution, economics, insight, measurement, modelling, news, operational risk, optimisation, predictive modelling

Interconnecting confusion

11 March 2010

David Kirk

Interconnect fees and the reasons for their reduction are possibly the most misunderstood “big” news story over the last twelve months. The hype and hoopla around this topic is fueled by our feelings as consumers of being charged too much big big monopoly companies. So I should start by saying that I’m not saying that…
Read more: Interconnecting confusion
data analysis, modelling, optimisation

Dealing with user cancellation of slow macro

10 September 2009

David Kirk

This post is a little different from usual.Â It concerns VBA macros for MS Excel. Writing macros is quite easy, but writing efficient macros that run in an acceptable time requires a few tweaks. Commonly known tweaks include turning off screen updating (see the code below for an example of how this works) and then…
Read more: Dealing with user cancellation of slow macro
Actuarial and Risk, competition, creating value, customer value, data analysis, insurance, measurement, modelling, regression, statistics

Presentation to ACAL on GI Pricing

23 October 2008

David Kirk

I gave a presentation on a holistic approach to ratemaking using predictive models yesterday to the Lebanese Insurance Association (ACAL, the acronym for the association in French). Over a hundred people attended, and there certainly seemed to be interest in the topic. A common response though was that Lebanon isn’t yet ready for that, because…
Read more: Presentation to ACAL on GI Pricing

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

Why Actuarial Model Migrations Are Hard
by David Kirk
Every few years, someone in the room says it. Maybe it is the new CTO. Maybe it is a consultant. Maybe it is you, staring… Read more: Why Actuarial Model Migrations Are Hard
The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
by David Kirk
Parametric insurance is often marketed as the “clean” alternative to traditional risk transfer. The pitch is compelling: if a hurricane hits a specific GPS coordinate… Read more: The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.

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