Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: measurement

Actuarial and Risk, creating value, Embedded Value, insight, insurance, life insurance, measurement, New Business Margin on Revenue

New Business Margin on Revenue

28 May 2011

David Kirk

A new measure of life insurance new business profitability is required. What is New Business Margin? Many life insurers currently calculate a measure of the profitability of new business sold over a period called “new business margin”. As defined by the CFO Forum’s MCEV Principles and confirmed in South Africa’s PGN107 covering embedded values, this…
Read more: New Business Margin on Revenue
currency risk, economics, insight, measurement

OMG Inflation

18 February 2011

David Kirk

I’ve had a couple of readers and one ex-student challenge my thinking that deflation was more of a risk than hyper-inflation over the last couple of years and that loose monetary policy and “printing money” (more on that later) is not likely going to lead to massive inflation of everything and the debasement of hard…
Read more: OMG Inflation
data analysis, economics, Emerging Markets, measurement, unemployment

Egypt: Indonesian or South African parallel?

3 February 2011

David Kirk

Paul Krugman compares Egypt’s economic performance prior to its political crisis to that of Indonesia and the Philippines. He makes a compelling point that the comparison fails. Egypt’s economic performance has been stable and much better than, say, South Africa’s for example. Â Krugman suggests: Egypt had decent growth — but the gains weren’t trickling down,…
Read more: Egypt: Indonesian or South African parallel?
currency risk, data analysis, economics, Emerging Markets, insight, measurement

Are our inflation figures fudged?

29 January 2011

David Kirk

The economist magazine compares Big Mac inflation to officially reported country inflation over the last ten years. The aim of their article is to suggest that perhaps China and Argentina have been fudging their inflation figures. However, my attention was drawn to South Africa right near the top of the chart. This suggests that our…
Read more: Are our inflation figures fudged?
economics, measurement, statistics

Productivity, GDP per capita and life choices

29 January 2011

David Kirk

I really enjoyed Paul Krugman’s analysis of differences between French and US GDP per capita. (It’s very short and very readable.) In short, the French are less productive than the Americans, they just work less (for good and bad reasons). Â This highlights the dangers of using measures and analytics lightly without understanding/allowing for other differences.
Read more: Productivity, GDP per capita and life choices
data analysis, insight, measurement, statistics

More on Marriage Data

4 December 2010

David Kirk

Divorce is becoming less popular, the world didn’t end at the end of the millenium and StatsSA makes it hard for us to draw conclusions.
Read more: More on Marriage Data
marketing, measurement, statistics

Know your (marital) status

4 December 2010

David Kirk

I’ve been exploring the 2007 Census data for South Africa, mostly just to see what is available. I was checking the reasonability of some marital status assumptions for pensions valuations, which got me looking at the marital status info from the Census. Some interesting descriptive graphs. First, let’s look at the total population. (Note this…
Read more: Know your (marital) status
creating value, data analysis, economics, Emerging Markets, measurement, unemployment

There isn’t one labour market

1 December 2010

David Kirk

I’ve heard it said (of the US) that there is no national property market, but rather than local property markets are relatively independent of each other. I guess this was more true before 2007 than it is today. Property in one area is a weak substitute for another property in a nearby area, and an…
Read more: There isn’t one labour market

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
by David Kirk
Parametric insurance is often marketed as the “clean” alternative to traditional risk transfer. The pitch is compelling: if a hurricane hits a specific GPS coordinate… Read more: The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
40,000
by David Kirk
40,000. That’s the ballpark figure I usually work with as the minimum number of micro insurance policies required for scale. The expenses of running even… Read more: 40,000

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