Twenty Third Floor

Figuring out the future and the now

Category: insight

creating value, data analysis, financial risk, insight, investments, managing uncertainty, market risk, measurement, statistics

Lose a Million

7 December 2011

David Kirk

The Make a Million competition, as I’ve mentioned before, is an awful idea. It doesn’t promote investing or even “normal” trading, but rather massive, speculative risk-taking trading because the prize for performing well is nothing and the prize for performing best is significant. I’m continually disappointed that Moneyweb continues to partner with this distraction. As…
Read more: Lose a Million
currency risk, economics, insight, news, Predictions

I could be rich – Bitcoin edition

4 December 2011

David Kirk

In June, after explaining why Bitcoins were an overrated fad at best and a truly awful idea for a currency at worst, I conclued “Now I just need to find a way to short Bitcoins.“Check out the price dropping from aroudn $30 to below $5.
Read more: I could be rich – Bitcoin edition
economics, insight, market risk, news, Predictions

Prediction update – US yields still falling

1 December 2011

David Kirk

An update to this prediction of a few months ago. US yields are around 2.09%Â and are looking mighty far away from the point where S&P downgraded them (2.56%).Â I’m feeling pretty comfortable on this one.
Read more: Prediction update – US yields still falling
banking, complexity, credit risk, currency risk, economics, financial risk, insight, investments, market risk, measurement, valuation

Greek default?

27 October 2011

David Kirk

So European politicians have more or less agreed a deal which may, more or less, push some of their problems to one side for a period. Yes, I’m not madly optimistic about this as a cure-all. Â This is not the end of the Euro problems. Part of the deal is a “50% loss for private…
Read more: Greek default?
communication, complexity, creating value, economics, insight, managing uncertainty, measurement, news, operational risk

Narratives vs facts

19 October 2011

David Kirk

I don’t usually write about The Final Frontier, but this article has a great parallel to what I do write about. It’s worth reading the entire article, but the main message is that we cannot use the dream or story or fairy tale of imminent migration into space and other planets as an excuse not…
Read more: Narratives vs facts
banking, capital, credit risk, currency risk, economics, Emerging Markets, financial risk, insight, news

Swazi King not sure he wants the conditions attached to the loan

12 October 2011

David Kirk

This is really fantastic news. Â The Swazi King is apparently reluctant to accept the loan from South Africa because of the conditions imposed in the agreement. I was quite harsh in criticising the granting of the loan with only conditions for improvement far down the line. Â (I still believe the first condition should be an…
Read more: Swazi King not sure he wants the conditions attached to the loan
economics, insight, measurement, news

Fractional Doom

11 October 2011

David Kirk

I don’t know what more to say about this: Teachers can’t do fractions. For all the complex thoughts on teaching approaches and school feeding schemes and Â exam difficulty and class sizes and parental involvement and availability of tertiary education and apprenticeships and any number of other issues, if teachers don’t know their subject education is…
Read more: Fractional Doom
banking, economics, insight

Confusion about mortgage interest deductions and ultimate lenders

14 August 2011

David Kirk

In South Africa, interest payments on a mortgage are only tax deductible if the interest cost was incurred in the production of income. If you borrow to finance a property to rent it out, that interest cost can be deducted against rental income. If you live in the property you are financing, you are not…
Read more: Confusion about mortgage interest deductions and ultimate lenders

About David Kirk

Featured Posts

The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
by David Kirk
Parametric insurance is often marketed as the “clean” alternative to traditional risk transfer. The pitch is compelling: if a hurricane hits a specific GPS coordinate… Read more: The “Indemnity Trap”: Why Outdated Legal Models are Deferring the Promise of Parametric Insurance
The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
by David Kirk
In the insurance industry, we often use Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) cover ratios as a key metric for comparing insurers’ financial strength. While these ratios… Read more: The Complexities of Comparing SCR Cover Ratios Across Insurers
One answer could be pet insurance
by David Kirk
I firmly believe major demographics shifts are going to have massive social, political, economic, financial market and commercial impacts in the coming decades. The balance… Read more: One answer could be pet insurance
A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
by David Kirk
Every failure hits policyholders’ savings or cover, impact their lives and their livelihoods. They destroys shareholder value and decrease confidence in the entire financial sector.… Read more: A piece of the failure puzzle – decreasing insurer failure rates through Skilled Person Reviews
How and why insurers fail
by David Kirk
I’ve been updating my presentation from 2021 on “How and Why Insurers Fail”. I now estimate the annual failure rate (or at least getting into… Read more: How and why insurers fail
The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
by David Kirk
I had a recent discussion on the value of getting a second opinion. There’s the old line that “if you want five opinions, ask three… Read more: The hidden dangers of opinion shopping and trusting good news.
40,000
by David Kirk
40,000. That’s the ballpark figure I usually work with as the minimum number of micro insurance policies required for scale. The expenses of running even… Read more: 40,000

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