Economists (and actuaries) like to measure things. The easier to measure and the more reliable the measure, the more we like to measure it. This is not unlike the drunk looking for his keys under the street lamp because that’s where the light is even if it isn’t where he dropped the keys. Sometimes the…
The last month hasn’t been pretty for economic performance, credit or retail sales. Everyone from Richemont to Mr Price has taken a beating. Woolies is down about 13% in the last month. And now both Capitec and African Bank are reporting worse default experience (respectively through temporary strike-blips or through a cyclical downwards trend) and…
As part of the run-up to my overview of my own predictions for 2012, I thought i should highlight why I bother at all. Most predictions, most of the time, will be wrong. Crystal balls aside, it is nearly impossible to reliably, accurately predict future complex events. However, the process of rigorously considering what might…
I haven’t posted in ages – plenty happening on the work front, which is mostly good news. I also don’t really have time to comment properly on this article but Wits academic, Robert Vivian, but it’s interesting reading all the same. Read Vivian’s letter first and then come back to my comments. I can’t help…
The FT is horribly confused. The point of QE3 is to loosen monetary policy to encourage consumption and investment to boost demand to get away from the zero lower band. Increased inflationary expectations are EXACTLY WHAT BERNANKE IS AFTER, not market fears of inflation.
The debate around access to healthcare and medical schemes in South Africa suddenly sounds pretty similar to the healthcare debate that is part of the US presidential election.
HP and Dell are both struggling enormously to make money. Consider this: Since Apple Inc. shifted the direction of computing with the release of the iPhone in June 2007, HP’s market value has plunged by 60 percent to $35 billion. During that time, HP has spent more than $40 billion on dozens of acquisitions that…
