Fooled by the Black Swan

Is your organisation one black swan away from disaster? Are you taking hidden risks in the quest for success, and using hope as your only risk management tool? Nassim Taleb’s books should be required reading for life Nassim Taleb is one of my new favourite authors. I’m actually a little slow on the uptake here […]

Still Infamous – Rudco to be probed

Quick update – thanks to Moneyweb for this update on the Rudco story. Seems Rudco is to be probed by the National Credit Regulator (NCR) for their business practices. Too soon to get too excited, because the NCR is forced to investigate once it has received complaints (or so I understand). Will be very interesting […]

Unreal currency risks in Zimbabwe… and how to manage currency risk if you still can.

Zimbabwe’s economic problems have been long related to inflation and the exchange rate. While it is difficult to determine the extent to which the one leads the other in this case, it is clear that both the volatility and dramatic change in prices and exchange rates are the results of a real economic meltdown. Risk […]

SA inflation breaches inflation target in March ’07

March 07 inflation in South Africa: CPIX 6.3% year-on-year Measuring inflation Measuring inflation is never easy, and while we have had a few high-profile errors by Stats SA in the last few years, the inflation numbers are probably not that bad. I mentioned some of these difficulties in relation to GDP before. Inflation and Sean […]

Taxes – more than just a cost

Apparently, it was Benjamin Franklin who said “In this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” Without going into a detailed analysis of whether death is certain, and whether there are tax-haven countries with sufficiently low taxes to stretch the point a little, I have some comments to make on […]

Markets, unintended consequences and the spam in the Feudal System

Ok, so the title will only make sense within the context of Blizzard’s hugely popular (and financially successful) World of Warcraft. WoW is, very simply, a multiplayer online game (and by multiplayer we’re not talking of 4 players here, but rather millions of players around the world) where players interact with other players and the […]

Mbeki points to rand volatility for hurting exports

President Thabo Mbeki made reference to the adverse affect that volatility of the South African Rand has had on South Africa’s export manufacturers. I’ve posted quite a bit about hedging recently, but it seems that the issues just won’t go away. Volatility hurts planning capabilities. Hedging can restrict the impact of volatility for certain durations. […]