News story on possible nationalisation options
News24 has an interesting, non-panicky story on possible Chilean or Australian models for greater involvement of the state in mining.
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Read more: News story on possible nationalisation options
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I’m wrong, but only for now
Read more: I’m wrong, but only for nowIt turned out the markets didn’t have an awful day. Â Italian bond yields are actually markedly down. So I was wrong about markets being ugly as a result of the ill-conceived plans for the Euro Zone. Call me stubborn perhaps, but I firmly believe the agreement is an awful one. Â It doesn’t address the primary…
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I could be rich – Bitcoin edition
Read more: I could be rich – Bitcoin editionIn June, after explaining why Bitcoins were an overrated fad at best and a truly awful idea for a currency at worst, I conclued “Now I just need to find a way to short Bitcoins.“Check out the price dropping from aroudn $30 to below $5.
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Prediction update – US yields still falling
Read more: Prediction update – US yields still fallingAn update to this prediction of a few months ago. US yields are around 2.09% and are looking mighty far away from the point where S&P downgraded them (2.56%). I’m feeling pretty comfortable on this one.
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Inevitability vs bad luck and currency unions
Read more: Inevitability vs bad luck and currency unionsThere’s been so much discussion about the Euro recently, with many people offering views on how we came to be where we are. I’d suggest that giving the limitations of the Euro structure, the ECB mandate and most critically, the failure of the Euro region to sufficiently meet the characteristics of an Optimum Currency Area…
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Actuarial and Risk, credit risk, currency risk, economics, financial risk, hedging, investments, life insurance, market risk
What is best practice for matching annuities in Greece in 2012?
Read more: What is best practice for matching annuities in Greece in 2012?Best practice for matching non-profit annuities in most countries, certainly from a risk perspective, is still to cash flow match (or at the very least, match key durations) using government bonds. The theory is that the insurer isn’t then exposed to changes in the term structure on interest rates, only exposed to illiqudity/reinvestment risk to…
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The ECB game
Read more: The ECB gameSo you can now play at being in control of the EC. This game of monetary policy for the EU is relatively interesting and educational. Critically, and potentially most informatively of all, the game measures success by inflation being within target and low volatility alone. No mention of economic stability or unemployment. Very much like…
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Credibility, inflation and quaint relics of a previous society
Read more: Credibility, inflation and quaint relics of a previous society“[The ECB] will end up as the highly credible defender of the value of a currency that no longer exists.” It’s becoming increasingly clear that Europe has a problem to which the solution will be world-changing. The way I see it, there are only two real possibilities: The ECB does act as lender of last…
