Greek probability of default to 98%
Greek probability of default, under some models and assumptions, is at 98%, which is easily within the margin of error of 100% given only marginally different assumptions of Loss Given Default.
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Read more: Greek probability of default to 98%
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Bits of Krugman
Read more: Bits of KrugmanKrugman catches up with me on Bitcoins and comes to pretty much the same conclusions in fewer words. Hey, he’s been blogging and writing and talking about economics longer than I have so that’s ok. I haven’t seen the data myself, but he points to declining value of transacations as people hoard Bitcoins – exactly…
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The cost of (transporting) gold
Read more: The cost of (transporting) goldHow to get 211 tonnes of gold to VenezuelaÂ
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Somehow, somewhere
Read more: Somehow, somewhereNational Treasury is mulling Deposit Insurance with an explicit charge on the banks. This is not a new idea, and has historically been resisted by the major banks since they feel, generally rightly, that they are less likely to have a problem of confidence and therefore less likely to benefit from deposit insurance. Smaller banks,…
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Confusion about mortgage interest deductions and ultimate lenders
Read more: Confusion about mortgage interest deductions and ultimate lendersIn South Africa, interest payments on a mortgage are only tax deductible if the interest cost was incurred in the production of income. If you borrow to finance a property to rent it out, that interest cost can be deducted against rental income. If you live in the property you are financing, you are not…
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Swaziland vs Greece
Read more: Swaziland vs GreeceSwaziland vs Greece? More like Swaziland and Greece: Linked to a currency they can’t control Potentially devastating consequences if they devalue their currency and move away from the peg Fiscal irresponsibility A small country relative to their economic neighbors Except Swaziland has a dictator in charge and gets a bail-out without serious conditions and at…
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Forget the US, Europe’s in a mess
Read more: Forget the US, Europe’s in a messSeveral years ago, at the height of the thermonuclear phase of the Global Financial Crisis (compared to the slow radiation death we’re experiencing at the moment) a colleague of mine poured scorn on the US as an economy and looked towards the mighty powerhouse of Europe as an example of How To Do Things Right.…
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banking, book reviews, credit risk, currency risk, economics, Emerging Markets, financial risk, market risk, predictive modelling, unemployment
Book Review: This Time is Different
Read more: Book Review: This Time is DifferentIt’s chock-full of analysis, numbers, tables and charts showing how as much as things change, the scope for financial crises changes very little. The comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets is particularly interesting in that the differences, while they do exist, are far smaller than stereotypical views. Emerging Markets do tend to have more ongoing…
