I’ve finally updated my predictions page for some of the predictions I made last year that can now be called.
I haven’t made new predictions for 2013 yet; I still need to take the time to do the analysis I want to make predictions I’m relatively sure of.
I learnt a few obvious things when reviewing my previous predictions. Although I’ve called all but one as “correct”, that included one where strictly speaking I would never be able to call it as true.
I said “MTN and Vodacom will never officially support bitcoins”. This can be called as false the moment they do support bitcoins, but can never truly be called as correct. However, I’ve called it as correct anyway. It’s become increasingly clear that bitcoins were the irrelevant fad I called them as being with more stories written about bitcoin fraud than anything else over the last year.
My most important prediction turned out to be incorrect. I predicted an increase in Italian bond yields or an exist of one country from the Euro. Italian, and particularly Spanish, bond yields did rise dangerously during the year. The ECB bent rules around directly financing nations through its support of secondary market bond prices. Technical acrobatics that circumvented the intentions of the founding fathers of the ECB, but also reflected the naivete of the founding thinking.