Predictions

# Prediction Date Prediction Outcome Correct?
1  3 June 2011 Bitcoins will be irrelevant by 2013 and will never emerge from a very small niche market.   I’m calling this as correct. More stories about bitcoins relate to hacking and theft. No major financial institutions support bitcoins.  YES
2  3 June 2011 None of MTN, Cell C or Vodacom will ever officially support Bitcoin.  This was a poorly worded prediction in hindsight. Strictly speaking I’ll never be able to call this as correct because of the “ever” part of the prediction. However, I’m going to be optimistic and call it as correct now because for all the stories of imminent support, absolutely nothing has emerged.  YES
3  5 August 2011 If the US debt is downgraded in the next 6 months, yields won’t increase by more than 0.2% 6 months after the downgrade. Yields on 10 year US bonds were 2.56%, Currently, US 10 year yields are just below 2.00%.  YES
4 3 December 2011 The GMU won’t be in place by 2015  YES
5  9 December 2011 Italian bond yields will be above 8% at some point before the end of 2012 or at least one country will have left the Euro. This was one of my more important predictions given the importance of the practical nature of world currencies and interest rates. Fortunately for the global economy, ECB action eventually stabilised borrowing costs for the PIIGS and, while talks of “Grexit” continue, the risks are significantly lower than when I made the prediction. I misread the political support for the Euro and the rule-bending that the ECB would be prepared to accept in the protection of the Euro. NO
6 16 July 2012 US 10 year government bond yields will be below 7% from at least now until 31 December 2016 PENDING
7 30 July 2012 Spanish bond yields to end the week (3 August) higher than 6.8% Spanish yields moved a little all over the place, but ended at 6.84% YES
8 14 September 2012 Solvency II won’t be implemented before 2015.  Deadlines for Solvency II have been further delayed until 2016 or later. Risks remain on the upside for futher delays. YES
9 28 March 2013 Cypriot capital controls will be renewed past Thursday 4 April 2013 YES
10 T —
11 T —

2 thoughts on “Predictions”

  1. Interesting Dave…beyond the typical realm of actuarial forecasting, but I think you might be onto something… 🙂

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