More on cars and colour

In researching my previous post on accurately measuring the risks associated with vehicle crimes based  on colour, I stumbled across another colour related risk measure.

Red cars, supposedly, attract more than their fair share of traffic fines.

Turns out this is incorrect.  Snopes.com has (as usual) an excellent article on red cars, including references to research showing red cars are not more likely to be fined than other vehicles. Unfortunately, the underlying research isn’t available online (as far as I could find).

Interconnecting confusion

Interconnect fees and the reasons for their reduction are possibly the most misunderstood “big” news story over the last twelve months.

The hype and hoopla around this topic is fueled by our feelings as consumers of being charged too much big big monopoly companies. So I should start by saying that I’m not saying that we are paying too much. I’m not saying that because I don’t know enough about the costs of providing cellular services in South Africa. Maybe we are, maybe we’re not. Also, I’m not saying there aren’t monopolistic practices in the market – again I simply don’t know. Given the other stories torn from inside companies by the sharp teeth and salivating jaws of the Competition Commission, it’s understandable that many suspect consumer-unfriendly play by most large South African companies, particularly those in industries with a small number of players.

What I am saying is that most of what you read in the news about interconnect is horribly misguided.

The biggest misconception is that interconnect fees are an expense for cellular providers, and that the removal of this expense would allow them to reduce tariffs to consumers. Well, it is an expense, but it is also a source of revenue. Every time one company pays an interconnect fee, another company is receiving it.

Interconnect does not change the total amount of profit within the cellular industry. It may redistribute it a little, and there may be negative medium term competitive implications arising from interconnect, but lower interconnect won’t automatically increase profits that could allow competitive price lowering for the benefit of consumers.

TechCentral has an interesting article: Bain warns consumers not to expect cellular price cuts.  Of course, it also include some done-to-death flawed statements (whether from Bain or inserted by the zealous staff writer) such as:

Because new players have few customers at first, most calls on their networks will be to networks of other operators. High interconnection fees make it difficult for them to enter the market.

It’s not that this statement is incorrect (it is in fact correct) it’s just that it is horribly misleading because it only presents one side of the story. I’ve reworded it to provide the stunning insight: Continue reading

Wise quotes, random misapplication

Wise quotes

I stumbled across an interesting hypothesis today. It’s a few hundred years old so I expect many of you will already know it. It’s attributed to a German philosopher, Arthur Schopenhaur* who is described by the authors and editors of Wikipedia as beinng “known for his atheistic pessimism and philosophical clarity”.

All truth passes through three phases
1. It is ridiculed
2. It is violently opposed
3. It is accepted as being obvious

Now there are several unmissable examples that follow this route quite neatly:

Hijacking risk measures

Statistics are dually known as useful and misleading. Another relevant saying is that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

3 Series
Creative Commons License photo credit: star5112

CAR magazine used to have a short section covering the number of complaints received from readers separated according to car brand. The problem with that sort of analysis is that it ignores the relative number of cars from each brand on the road. The “exposure” of toyotas to problems is much higher than maseratis since there are rather more toyotas on our roads. If CAR magazine received an equal number of complaints from drivers of maseratis and toyotas, it would suggest anything but an equal likelihood of having problems from each of those brands. I obviously wasn’t sufficiently convincing when I offered to help them devise a less biased measurement criterion.

This is an example of a common problem with random events – it is important to consider what could have happened as well as what did happen when understanding the results.

In a related example, iAfrica has an interesting article on car hijackings in South Africa. They include a list of the top ten hikacked cars. The list is interesting, but difficult to interpret without knowing how many of each vehicle were hijacking AND how many were on the road, able to be hijacked. If the Maserati Gran Turismo were on the list, I would be wary of driving one! Continue reading

Insured against ranting and rambling

Moneyweb has an article describing the failure of the South African insurance industry to provide insurance to the wider population, including lower income markets such as the banking sector has done.

There are some interesting points to discuss here, and I’m certainly not saying the industry could not do more. However, there are some fairly fundamental social, pyschological and technical reasons that need to be overcome first. I’ve repeated some comments on the article below. I don’t claim this to be an exhaustive list, but I suggest that it lists some more likely suspects for the causes of imperfect penetration of the insurance market.

Sorry Felicity, but this article doesn’t even get into the details and shows a lack of understanding of the drivers of the need for insurance, and the perceived need for insurance.

Life Insurance
Comparing insurance to banking is disingenuous. Transactional banking makes your life easier, now. Basic savings account can work towards short-term goals. Life insurance will always seem less pressing.

1. Savings products will not work for lower income policyholders through an insurance policy because of the assumed average tax rate of 30%. It is a good deal for welathy investors in high marginal tax brackets, but awful for poor people. This is a function of the tax system not the insurers.
2. Life insurance requires payment of a premium now for a possible future benefit to dependents. There is no way this will ever be a priority need. This is human nature. Even if policies are sold, they will be lapsed very quickly and “better” uses are found for the premiums.
3. Lower income market segments typically have greater reliance on extended family for support. Thus, the need is lower for insurance. This is typical of developing countries, and declines as wealth and education increase (along with smaller families, later first children and less support from the extended family).

4. Funeral insurance may be sold through non-traditional outlets, but it is still exactly life insurance. Just that here the need is better appreciated and understood. Therefore it sells. Or do you want insurers to sell products for which there isn’t a need. (hey, easy on the comments that they already do… I don’t think insurers are angels!)
5. Credit life is required to protect the lenders from the death of the borrower. Again, there is a clear need and this form of insurance is quite widespread. Incidentally, funeral insurance and credit life are, unfortunately, typically quite profitable business lines. This might be a better line of attack against the insurance industry.
6. Insurance in South Africa has remarkably high penetration as measured by insurance premiums as a percentage of GDP and compared to other countries. This shows the succes of the industry, and also explains the limited growth prospects. Life insurance is typically less prevalent than short-term insurance in developing economies – if the problem isn’t restricted to South Africa maybe we should look for broader reasons?

7. I know several insurers who are targeting lower income markets with mixed success. The typical complaint against insurers is that they are overly profit-seeking. If (if!) this is true, then one can’t also complain that they aren’t following up on profitable opportunities? Again, maybe the reason is broader than you’ve implied.

Short-term insurance
Several other commentors have already described valid reasons for why short-term insurance take-up is lower than might be hoped. In many countries, third party liability cover is a legal requirement to drive a vehicle, and with good reason. This is the case in Lebanon, another country where I understand a bit about the insurance industry.

Losses on equity portfolios for our short-term insurers don’t really translate to a requirement to provide insurance to new markets. Maybe it suggests a requirement for less reliance on equity bull markets for performance in good years.

Short-term insurance in South Africa would be considered competitive by most standards. If there were large, profitable, untapped markets out there (with sufficient volumes, limited fraud and low enough claims frequencies and severities to make the premiums affordable to the target market) I expect they would be aggressively pursued. The thing about third party liability cover is that it isn’t greatly a function of the value of your vehicle. That makes it relatively expensive compared with the value of a car typical of a lower income target market. Being insured against someone else’s costs, when you would have no way to pay them otherwise and therefore it would be pointless to be sued, doesn’t sound like a very likely expenditure item.

The expenses of adminstering a policy are also not related to the size of policy or the value of insured property. One can argue whether current efficiency levels are right, but that is a separate argument (and one likely to suggest job cuts…).

The propotion of South Africans with short-term insurance should also be compared against those with sufficient assets to make it sensible. Direct comparisons against the populatio as a whole are close to meaninless.

Ok, I think I have done more than enough rambling and ranting. However, let me conclude with one observation on a quote from the article:

“And the plain fact is that local insurers have done way too little to develop products that offer value for the vast majority of South Africans. This is self-evident; precious few South Africans use insurance products.”

Just saying something is a fact doesn’t make it a fact. And please don’t abuse “self-evident”. Just because one item could be a cause of something does not make it the cause, or the only cause, or the primary cause. Especially not when you have just laid out a few of the reasons I also covered as to why insurance is a hard sell.

I wonder whether I should have mentioned the bad debts on house and car loans that are stacking up based (only partially!!) on pressure to lend to households with little wealth for large deposits and strained financials?

How not to do SEO

Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) is an unfortunately necessary part of driving traffic to discover a website. Good content is necessary but not sufficient.

Why SEO is necessary

A large percentage of web traffic is directed by search engines. After all, this is how Google has become the giant company that it is. I tried to track down some hard statistics on this, but they varied widely and didn’t seem all that credible. Nevertheless I think it is clear that this traffic is signficant.

Search engines use algorithms and automated scripts (“spiders”) to understand the importance, quality, relevance and popularity of content on the web. A radiographer takes xrays without being able to see directly the same picture as the xray will produce. A photographer taking black-and-white photographs needs to ignore the colour in the viewfinder and imagine the light and shadows and shapes of the final photograph.

If your website has excellent content, but structures it in a way that is not readily accessible to a search engine’s spiders, then the spider will pass on by without sending humans to visit your site. Two easy examples may help:

  1. Flash content – the content may look great and be ground-breaking and useful, but since most spiders don’t currently “understand” Flash content, it will be ignored.
  2. Login, registration and forms – if large parts of a website are accessible only after filling information in a form or registering and logging in, the spiders won’t get in the door.

There are other considerations that are postulated to be relevant:

  • Duplicate content “dilutes” the scores of any individual page
  • Many links to irrelevant, poorly rated pages can suggest that your site is not providing useful info to the user. This effect is stronger since search engines try to separate “link farms” and rings and other methods to make a collection of websites appear more connected than they are in reality.
  • Poor choice of keywords that searchers may often use, or targeting terms that are widely targeted by a range of other websites.

A typical SEO strategy is quite complex and takes times, effort and money

A typical SEO strategy would cover analysing the target audience of a site, understanding the site content, understanding the site structure, doing keyword analysis, checking out competitors, generating a few good quality inbound links if applicable, possibly generating some linkbait content, installing appropriate tools (e.g. Google Analytics) to monitor traffic and then repeating the cycle once the customer behaviour is better understood. Key metrics are site traffic generated, low bounce rates, long time on the site, repeat customers, higher sales (or more contacts if online sales aren’t part of your service) and higher search rankings.

All of this takes time (both from the SEO but also from the website owner). There are many fly-by-night organisations claiming to do SEO with neither the knowledge or the business ethics to get it right. It is probably because it is a poorly understood, sometimes arcane speciality, that these companies get into business with low starting capital costs.

How not to do SEO in ten easy steps

I received an unsolicited email from Zenteq recently. I’m not providing a link to their website as I have no reason to believe they can deliver anything useful.

  1. Sending unsolicited email (aka SPAM). This is typically a bad idea. Best case scenario you get a few new customers. Worst case scenario you irritate a huge block of potential customers, have your mail server and/or IP blocked as a source of spam, have your ISP close down your website for abuse and so on.
  2. Use bright (as in reflective safety wear) green text and truly ugly formatting. Not a professional image by far.
  3. Offer to “SEO” the website by submitting to 600,000 search engines monthly. This is irrelevant and a giant waste of money.
  4. Charge R350 per month. In the short-term, this is far too little. The work involved at the outset of optimising a website for search engines requires several full days of work. However, in the long-run, this may well be too much. Since there appears to be no reason for the client to stay with Zenteq, we have a familiar problem where the business model doesn’t make sense for a serious operator and thus it’s likely that it isn’t a serious operator. (on trawling their webpage I see there is a R1000 upfront fee as well. Nice not to include this in the email. It still isn’t enough for serious upfront work)
  5. No description of other components of SEO strategy, or examples of prior successful work.
  6. “From” email is marketing@fire-equipment.org, “Reply to” is newheights70@telkomsa.net but the content directs the reader to info@zenteq.co.za. So which is it?
  7. Structure your email so that it gets stopped by the spam filter built into both Thunderbird and Apple’s Mail application.
  8. Include icons on their site claiming valid XHTML code, but then fail the test when the button is clicked.
  9. Analysis of google results shows no links to zenteq.co.za.
  10. And my favourite – a search on google for “seo site:za” which searches for the top websites relating to “seo” within the “za” domain doesn’t have zenteq listed in the top ten pages. A first-page listing is almost an requirement if you expect any number of click-throughs.

So who guards the guards, and who optimises the optimisers?

Visagie still around?

A comment came in today on an old article about the dodgy lending scheme Rudie Visagie was proposing.

The reader “trymore” provides some details of a new deal apparently being run by Rudie Visagie. As I stated last time this gentleman’s name came up, I have no personal interest or involvement here at all. My interest was just to show how the deal made no business sense to Visagie given the significant interest rate, currency and credit risks involved. Thus, it sounded like a scam. At the time, I quite enjoyed hearing all the supporters claiming I just didn’t want him to succeed. Meanwhile, several regulators started to probe the dubious claims, and it became clear that apart from anything else, Visagie wasn’t licenced to carry out the business he was proposing.

They quickly quietened down when the whole thing fell apart and Visagie’s clients lost money. Several readers of this site gave their own stories to this extent.

“Trymore” had the following to say:

Our company was also approached to do bussiness with Mr Visagie’s new company , which is now called Better Life. Our clients would get Loans from them and on final approval would have to pay R5700.00, on enquiring about their company eg contact no’s , name of directors, physical address ect we were continuously stonewalled and eventualy given the name of their “attornies�(who had no knowledge of them) and their buss address in Blouberg Str(they are merely renting desk space).So my advise to anyone wanting to do buss with Better Life is, DONT GO THERE!!!!!!

This is a little out of my area of knowledge, but it sounds like the wheels are turning yet again. One doesn’t need sophisticated risk models allowing for the interaction of multiple risks, individual behaviour and an estimate of one’s risk appetite to know that a business that isn’t proud to show itself off isn’t one you should trust.

This reminds me of the example of the business premises of banks versus supermarkets. Banks typically spend large amounts of money on fancy head-offices, marble floors, giant pillars and so on. Supermarkets don’t. The key differentiator is that at a supermarket, you don’t care if they are in business tomorrow or not. You can tell the quality of the products by inspecting it and if they aren’t around tomorrow you aren’t affected. A bank, on the other hand, needs to show that it is not a fly-by-night operator. It needs to show that it has the resources to withstand economic crises, interest rate shifts and tilts and butterflies, poor credit events and the operational risks associated with any business. A bank needs to convince customers that it is solvent and good for the long term.

I don’t deal with financial institutions that look like supermarkets. No matter how low the prices are.