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	<title>Twenty Third Floor &#187; currency risk</title>
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	<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za</link>
	<description>Creating a technical business advantage through analysis, research and insight.</description>
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		<title>Paul vs Paul on the US economy</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/01/paul-vs-paul-on-the-us-economy/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/01/paul-vs-paul-on-the-us-economy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 20:54:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[credit risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1749</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Paul Krugman debates Ron Paul on live TV. Ill-advised or not, it is interesting to see their different takes go head to head. I&#8217;m not sure either really puts their points across very well, but I was a little surprised &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/01/paul-vs-paul-on-the-us-economy/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Paul Krugman debates Ron Paul on live TV. Ill-advised or not, it is interesting to see their different takes go head to head. I&#8217;m not sure either really puts their points across very well, but I was a little surprised to see the vitriol in the comments of the YouTube video against Paul Krugman. Ron Paul clearly has a strong support base.</p>
<p>If you listen carefully, you won&#8217;t hear Ron Paul address any of the fundamental economic issues caused by the Gold Standard, you will hear him disagree with Milton Friedman and you will hear him use more emotive please than even Paul Krugman. Krugman, on the other hand, uses a mixture of emotive pleas with overly complex ideas and probably entirely misses his audience.</p>
<p>Simple fact is, a little inflation and currency depreciation would go a long way to fixing the structural problems with the US economy AS WELL as the defiicent-demand cyclical problems.</p>
<p>Watch the video.</p>
<p><iframe width="584" height="438" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/PxR25JSG0X0?fs=1&#038;feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/27/catching-krugman/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Catching Krugman</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/05/if-your-model-has-always-been-wrong/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">If your model has always been wrong</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/02/23/for-every-complex-problem/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">For every complex problem&#8230;</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/01/29/productivity-gdp-per-capita-and-life-choices/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Productivity, GDP per capita and life choices</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2010/11/10/no-country-that-matters-is-moving-to-the-gold-standard/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">No country (that matters) is moving to the gold standard</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
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		<title>Digital currencies and more</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/04/12/digital-currencies-and-more/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/04/12/digital-currencies-and-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Apr 2012 07:35:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[news]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bitcoins are a bad idea.  I&#8217;ve put this forward from multiple directions already. What&#8217;s interesting is the range of new, government-sponsored digital currencies that are in development. Digital currencies might also be a little bit of a stretch, they&#8217;re still &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/04/12/digital-currencies-and-more/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bitcoins are a bad idea.  I&#8217;ve put this forward from multiple directions <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/11/this-is-not-only-why-bitcoins-are-a-bad-idea/">already</a>.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s interesting is the range of new, government-sponsored digital currencies that are in development. Digital currencies might also be a little bit of a stretch, they&#8217;re still more like digital payment methods. Unlike Bitcoins, there is much to recommend about low-cost, high-security, electronic digital payment platforms.</p>
<p>Japan is toying with slightly different ideas. <a href="http://www.networkworld.com/news/2012/041112-japanese-atms-to-use-palm-258152.html">Rather than using a traditional ATM card to withdraw cash, you might simply use your palm</a>. It really is only a matter of time before the ubiquitous plastic card disappears into a cellphone, embedded chip, retina scan or something.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57399610/sweden-moving-towards-cashless-economy/">Sweden is moving towards a cashless economy</a>, with one of the driving factors being security &#8211; as in personal safety. Maybe I&#8217;ve missed some news stories (or not read Dragon Tattoo enough times) but I wouldn&#8217;t have thought that Sweden would be first in the world at worrying about personal safety.</p>
<p>To be clear, there are several wide-scale advances in this area around the world already.  These aren&#8217;t specifically digital currencies, but rather different, more efficient methods of payment.  The UK Oyster card is a good example of a wide-scale contactless payment system that works well for small payments in a fast-speed transaction environment. The precursor of the UK&#8217;s Oyster is Hong Kong&#8217;s Octopus card, which is actually used or micro-payments on transport systems, many parking areas and even vending machines.</p>
<p>Google and PayPal have systems allowing small digital payments that are cost-effective, but still linked to an account so your account information is linked directly to the transaction. One of the apparent virtues of Bitcoins is their anonymous nature. Now for the most part most individuals aren&#8217;t particularly bothered by anonymity, but it is a genuine concern. Do you really want a vending machine company to know when and where you buy your Coke and Vitamin Water from their vending machines? Would you want this information to be aggregated with your online purchases and fuel purchases and airline ticket purchases? Very soon the information that Google currently stores on you would be a drop in the information ocean from these real world movements and transactions.</p>
<p>So <a href="http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1159513--royal-canadian-mint-to-create-digital-currency">Canada&#8217;s proposal for an anonymous, digital currency</a> is really interesting. Government backing is one good way of giving credibility and scale to a system that many competing system will not be able to manage.</p>
<p>For me, one of the most interesting aspects of the story was the Canadian Mint&#8217;s IPO of an exchange traded listing for gold receipts for gold stored at the mint. This is basically the oldest form of gold-backed currency &#8211; receipts of gold on deposit at an institution where the receipts were tradeable and allowed &#8220;gold&#8221; to be used for transactions more conveniently and safely that gold bars and coins.</p>
<p>What once was old is now new.</p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/11/this-is-not-only-why-bitcoins-are-a-bad-idea/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">This is not (only) why bitcoins are a bad idea</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/07/08/bitcoin-mirth/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Bitcoin mirth [UPDATED]</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2010/10/14/i-promise-to-pay-the-bearer/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">I promise to pay the bearer</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2010/11/10/no-country-that-matters-is-moving-to-the-gold-standard/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">No country (that matters) is moving to the gold standard</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/09/26/golden-stories/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Golden Stories</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>For every complex problem&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/02/23/for-every-complex-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/02/23/for-every-complex-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Feb 2012 17:46:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[complexiy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insight]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1715</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For every complex problem, there is a solution that is clear, simple and wrong. Greece is a complex problem. Paul Krugman points to this Choose Your Own Adventure on the Greek crisis. Much like the original books, there are many, &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/02/23/for-every-complex-problem/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For every complex problem, there is a solution that is clear, simple and wrong.</p>
<p>Greece is a complex problem. Paul Krugman points to this <a href="http://crookedtimber.org/2012/02/16/so-what-would-your-plan-for-greece-be/">Choose Your Own Adventure on the Greek crisis</a>. Much like the original books, there are many, many nasty ends.</p>
<p>Read it, try it, explore a few paths. This is the best resource I&#8217;ve seen recently to explain exactly how bad almost all the alternatives are, and how there are no really good outcomes from this mess.</p>
<p>Rest of The World, watch out.</p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/01/paul-vs-paul-on-the-us-economy/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Paul vs Paul on the US economy</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2007/11/28/complexity/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Complexity</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/01/30/harsh-but-true-words-on-greece-the-euro/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Harsh but true words on Greece, the Euro</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/11/29/what-is-best-practice-for-matching-annuities-in-greece-in-2012/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">What is best practice for matching annuities in Greece in 2012?</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/08/23/analogy-breakdown/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Analogy breakdown</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Harsh but true words on Greece, the Euro</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/01/30/harsh-but-true-words-on-greece-the-euro/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/01/30/harsh-but-true-words-on-greece-the-euro/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jan 2012 20:35:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[news]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1690</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Greece is the canary. Europe is the coal mine. One voice calling it yellow and black. Related Posts:Swaziland vs GreeceWhen leaving is really hardFor every complex problem&#8230;No timeForget the US, Europe&#8217;s in a mess]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/30/opinion/greece-germany-europe-varoufakis/index.html?hpt=hp_c2">Greece is the canary. Europe is the coal mine. One voice calling it yellow and black. </a></p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/08/05/swaziland-vs-greece/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Swaziland vs Greece</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/14/when-leaving-is-really-hard/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">When leaving is really hard</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/02/23/for-every-complex-problem/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">For every complex problem&#8230;</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/16/no-time/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">No time</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/08/03/forget-the-us-europes-in-a-mess/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Forget the US, Europe&#8217;s in a mess</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Fitch downgrades outlook for South Africa</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/01/13/fitch-downgrades-outlook-for-south-africa/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/01/13/fitch-downgrades-outlook-for-south-africa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jan 2012 15:24:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[credit risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1673</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fitch downgrades outlook for South Africa to &#8220;negative&#8221;.  Ferial Haffajee highlights a difference in reasons given by Treasury (blame the international economy) and Fitch (unemployment). Related Posts:BRIC is not going to be come BRICSS&#038;P vs Moody&#8217;sEgypt: Indonesian or South African &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/01/13/fitch-downgrades-outlook-for-south-africa/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFL6E8CD2ZW20120113">Fitch downgrades outlook for South Africa to &#8220;negative&#8221;</a>.  Ferial Haffajee highlights a <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/ferialhaffajee/status/157843719331131392">difference in reasons</a> given by Treasury (blame the international economy) and Fitch (unemployment).</p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2010/12/13/bric-is-not-going-to-be-come-brics/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">BRIC is not going to be come BRICS</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/08/10/sp-vs-moodys/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">S&#038;P vs Moody&#8217;s</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/02/03/egypt-indonesia-or-south-african-parallel/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Egypt: Indonesian or South African parallel?</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/07/08/bitcoin-mirth/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Bitcoin mirth [UPDATED]</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2010/12/01/causes-of-unemployment-in-south-africa/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Causes of unemployment in South Africa</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Competing European interests</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/15/competing-european-interests/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/15/competing-european-interests/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 13:16:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[credit risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1652</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The BBC has a great overview of competing European interests, demonstrating exactly how far they are from a deal. In my mind, this is half of the reason markets are going to punish European bonds soon. The other half is &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/15/competing-european-interests/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The BBC has a great <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16036387">overview of competing European interests</a>, demonstrating exactly how far they are from a deal. In my mind, this is half of the reason markets are going to punish European bonds soon. The other half is that the proposed deal is rubbish. It doesn&#8217;t fix the causes but tries to ban the symptoms.</p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/04/24/beginnings-of-the-european-realisation-that-austerity-is-mis-timed/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Beginnings of the European realisation that austerity is mis-timed</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/11/16/nearer-the-edge-than-ever-before/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Nearer the edge than ever before</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/10/27/greek-default/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Greek default?</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2007/12/04/us-cpas-to-start-speaking-french/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">US CPAs to start speaking French</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/15/two-views-on-euro-problems/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Two views on Euro problems</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>I&#8217;m wrong, but only for now</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/09/im-wrong-but-only-for-now/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/09/im-wrong-but-only-for-now/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2011 21:20:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1643</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It turned out the markets didn&#8217;t have an awful day.  Italian bond yields are actually markedly down. So I was wrong about markets being ugly as a result of the ill-conceived plans for the Euro Zone. Call me stubborn perhaps, &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/09/im-wrong-but-only-for-now/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It turned out the markets didn&#8217;t have an awful day.  Italian bond yields are actually markedly down. So I was wrong about <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/09/europe-hasnt-done-enough-quickly-enough/">markets being ugly as a result of the ill-conceived plans for the Euro Zone</a>.</p>
<p>Call me stubborn perhaps, but I firmly believe the agreement is an awful one.  It doesn&#8217;t address the primary problems of the Euro Zone, doesn&#8217;t restore competitiveness to Southern countries, doesn&#8217;t address the problem of a lack of a true, unlimited lender of last resort and most importantly, probably won&#8217;t get ratified by the populations of the individual countries.</p>
<p>I may have read the markets incorrectly for today, but I am as convinced as ever that the problems have not been solved.  Watch this space, there is more trouble ahead. (<a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/09/europes-disastrous-summit/">Felix Salmon, amongst others, feels similarly</a>.)</p>
<p><strong>Prediction: Italian bond yields will be above 8% at some point before the end of 2012 or at least one country will have left the Euro.</strong></p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/02/05/greeks-going-south/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Greeks going South</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/11/20/credibility-inflation-and-quaint-relics-of-a-previous-society/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Credibility, inflation and quaint relics of a previous society</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/09/europe-hasnt-done-enough-quickly-enough/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Europe hasn&#8217;t done enough, quickly enough</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/08/10/sp-vs-moodys/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">S&#038;P vs Moody&#8217;s</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/11/25/italys-yields-head-towards-8/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Italy&#8217;s yields head towards 8%</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Renminbi or Yuan</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/07/renminbi-or-yuan/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/07/renminbi-or-yuan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2011 12:35:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1635</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Read this article from the BBC describing the difference between, or at least different usage between, Renminbi and Yuan. &#8220;Renminbi&#8221; is the official name of the currency introduced by the Communist People&#8217;s Republic of China at the time of its &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/07/renminbi-or-yuan/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Read this <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10413076">article from the BBC describing the difference between, or at least different usage between, Renminbi and Yuan</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Renminbi&#8221; is the official name of the currency introduced by the Communist People&#8217;s Republic of China at the time of its foundation in 1949. It means &#8220;the people&#8217;s currency&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8220;Yuan&#8221; is the name of a unit of the renminbi currency. Something may cost one yuan or 10 yuan. It would not be correct to say that it cost 10 renminbi.</p></blockquote>
<p>A little confusing, but at least now you know.</p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2008/07/30/zim-currency-to-lose-the-billions-for-now/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Zim currency to lose the billions. for now.</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2009/03/19/wheres-the-safe/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Where&#8217;s the safe?</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/01/29/are-our-inflation-figures-fudged/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Are our inflation figures fudged?</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2009/04/02/good-economic-news-for-lebanon/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Good economic news for Lebanon</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2006/11/29/this-economy-of-ours/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">This economy of ours!</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>I could be rich &#8211; Bitcoin edition</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/04/i-could-be-rich-bitcoin-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/04/i-could-be-rich-bitcoin-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Dec 2011 07:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1628</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In June, after explaining why Bitcoins were an overrated fad at best and a truly awful idea for a currency at worst, I conclued &#8220;Now I just need to find a way to short Bitcoins.&#8220;Check out the price dropping from &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/04/i-could-be-rich-bitcoin-edition/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In June, after explaining why Bitcoins were an overrated fad at best and a truly awful idea for a currency at worst, I conclued &#8220;<a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/03/doesnt-have-two-bitcoins-to-rub-together/">Now I just need to find a way to short Bitcoins.</a>&#8220;Check out the price dropping from aroudn $30 to below $5.</p>
<div id="attachment_1629" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 950px"><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/blog_files/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/bitcoin_price_graph.png"><img class="size-full wp-image-1629" title="Bitcoin price over the last year" src="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/blog_files/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/bitcoin_price_graph.png" alt="Bitcoin price plummets since June" width="940" height="348" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Bitcoin price plummets since June</p></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div id="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/21/the-beginning-of-the-bitcoin-end/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">The beginning of the bitcoin end</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/20/so-many-more-reasons-bitcoins-will-fail/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">So many more reasons Bitcoins will fail</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/26/bis-think-were-near-international-full-employment/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">BIS thinks we&#8217;re near international full employment</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/06/11/this-is-not-only-why-bitcoins-are-a-bad-idea/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">This is not (only) why bitcoins are a bad idea</a></li><li><a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/03/yes-the-us-government-is-part-of-the-problem/" rel="bookmark" class="crp_title">Yes the US government is part of the problem</a></li></ul></div>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The GMU won&#8217;t be in place by 2015</title>
		<link>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/03/the-gmu-wont-be-in-place-by-2015/</link>
		<comments>http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/03/the-gmu-wont-be-in-place-by-2015/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Dec 2011 07:00:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Kirk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/?p=1624</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Although the original and long-planned date for the Gulf Monetary Union&#8217;s single currency was 2010, I&#8217;m putting my neck out once again and predicting that a currency union of all the current GCC countries won&#8217;t happen by end 2015. There &#8230; <a href="http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2011/12/03/the-gmu-wont-be-in-place-by-2015/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Although the original and long-planned date for the Gulf Monetary Union&#8217;s single currency was 2010, I&#8217;m putting my neck out once again and predicting that a currency union of all the current GCC countries won&#8217;t happen by end 2015.</p>
<p>There are too many political problems, too much fallout from the Euro and, frankly, too many good reasons not to do it. In some ways, Saudi Arabia may exert enough pressure in the region to make it work, but for the same reason I suspect some may be wary of Saudi gaining any more leverage.</p>
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