As Cyprus burns, does South Africa?

SocGen in worried about South African bonds, government borrowing, budget deficits and the economy as a whole.

“Volcano Eruption” is the phrase they used. That’s not subtle stuff. A few other analysts quoted in the article and more bullish on the Rand and downplay risks for South Africa. I don’t feel that there is much news-flow that indicates an eruption, but I just don’t know what Cyprus Burning does for investor sentiment.

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.

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  1. Cyprus was just a trial balloon for the central banks to pull back from QE and put the burden onto depositors. Now thats been stymied who knows where we go next.

    1. You realise several of the banks are insolvent? This has nothing to do with QE. The banks have incurred losses and shareholders, bond holders and large depositors are losing their money.

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