Greeks going South

The Greeks are in danger of descending into a disorderly default next month. I’m not surprised. As I’ve mentioned before, the Euro is not working for them, the ECB is not supporting them (they may not be able to according to their mandate) and the Germans are too busy patting themselves on their self-serving backs while scolding the buyers of their goods for having bought their goods with money borrowed from irresponsible lender Germany.

So far my prediction of an increase in Italian bond yields has not been going well, with Italian long bond yields down strong in the last few days and more so over the last month. I’m hopeful (self-servingly, I suppose) that this shock might push them back up.

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.