Ignoring the facts take 2

Felicity Duncan from Moneyweb makes the story up as she goes in a recent story about whether to stay invested in the markets or not.

Inflation is beginning to increase around the world, and just about the only thing that economists can agree on is that the current ultra-low interest rates policies popular in much of the world are going to lead to relatively high inflation over the next few years

Ms Duncan has entirely missed the critical point differentiating economists’ views. Some below we’re in a liquidity trap where we only wish we had inflation (but don’t have) and need more fiscal stimulus to promote demand and a return to full employment, others are worried that low interest rates and quantitative easing will result in market distortions, the inflation of another bubble  and won’t fix unemployment (which they think is structural).

Moreover, inflation expectations are not climbing and are not high (unless you call 1.7% on a five year view “high”)

Breakeven inflation
Breakeven inflation

So Ms Duncan simply showcases the state of the economic debate we’re in.  There are multiple views, but much of discussion is happening independent of the facts.

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.

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