Pravin Gordhan is on record saying NHI won’t increase tax burden.
He clearly doesn’t understand income and expenditure. If government spends more, more tax must be collected. If employees don’t pay the tax, employers must pay the tax. If this is directly related to labour, you’ve just increased the cost of labour without a commensurate increase in productivity. Labour less attractive, fewer jobs.
The only way for NHI to not cost is if it replaces current health expenditure, in which case it’s about using funds more effectively. This is not the message I’m hearing.