Uncapped Wordsmiths

There have been major developments in the broadband internet space in South Africa in 2010. Several major ISPs have started offering so-called “uncapped broadband” at surprisingly affordable rates.

The immediate astonishment and disbelief at the low prices was soon replaced by sulking and disbelief at the application of “fair usage policies” that restricts the speed at which certain ports run, and the speed at which the entire service runs after a certain (sometimes specified sometimes not) amount of data has been downloaded for the month.

I blogged a few weeks ago about the fundamental economic problems of shared, uncapped (or “common”) broadband access. This hasn’t changed the conversations happening in the wider world.  Maybe next time.

I thought I’d approach this from a completely different angle. Moneyweb has an article today “Is MTN’s uncapped broadband a con?” In reality, the article is taking a fair swing at most so-called cheap uncapped broadband, claiming that it isn’t really uncapped.

Which is ridiculous.

Of course it’s uncapped. You are never capped. You can download throughout the month and never be capped. The complainers are whinging about the wrong word.

What these services are not is broadband. They are uncapped, but the speed at which they are uncapped is too slow to be called broadband. MTN’s product could better be described as 128kbps uncapped, with a speed boost for the first 3GB (or 10GB depending on package). This is an uncapped account but it is not broadband.

The ASA has already had success in the past in preventing some companies from advertising internet services as broadband if they are not fast enough. This should be the angle taken to prevent misleading advertising.

Book Review: Socrates and the Fox

What an utter disappointment. Clem Sunter may (or may not) know something about strategy and scenario planning, but this book does nothing to excite me. The analogy of a fox is pushed and stretched and twisted to incorporate it into every few pages with no benefit. The structure and flow of the book make it difficult to read, there is a combination of too many detailed tactical points (particularly for a book on strategy) and superficial examples that demonstrate nothing.

We are expected to take almost everything as given and accepted, with almost no time spent showing, explaining or proving why these ideas work. Add to that some standard business analysis models reworded and renamed, but giving no better (or worse) insight than the original models makes me wonder what the point of reading the book is.

Mr Sunter would have done well to have a editor with a little more backbone who could counter this weak effort and ask him to try again.

Back-test that

May 6 2010.  Dow falls more than 1,000 points intraday, including a drop of P&G from around $60 to (according to some accounts) below $40. The Dow recovered most of the falls quickly, but these trades are now part of the historical time series.

Banks and others using risk management tools often back-test their models against historical data to see how whether the models capture past market movements in estimating potential future market movements. This blip may appear as an anomaly in these tests for some time.

(It’s more typical for the tests to use only closing prices rather than intra-day prices. However, this actually reflects a weakness in the typical models and is only a fortunate escape from today’s problems)

Book Review: The Halo Effect

I agree wholeheartedly with the basic premise; maybe that is the problem. As I read, I moved from nodding vigorously in agreement during the introduction to nodding off to sleep by the second chapter.

The general themes of critical thinking, caution and recognising complexity rather than being taken in by simplistic, post hoc, naive, flawed logic reasons for high performance are important. Authors from Tom Peters to Jim Collins have made a fortune, and entertained thousands, with their books on how to improve organisational performance. However, from the admission that much of the data for “In Search of Excellence” was fabricated to small samples and failed long-term predictive ability out of “Good to Great” the answers are imperfect.

The world of behavioural economics has discovered much about exactly how badly we typically think, especially when we don’t realise we should be in “logical analytical mode”. So much so that the book is now old news.

I don’t know whether the author is so impressed with his own ideas that he imagines the need to spell them out in excruciating detail with multiples too much evidence to allow mere mortal readers to understand, or whether the typical reader is so unfamiliar with the requirements of critical thinking that a ten page pamphlet needed to be expanded to several hundred pages. Maybe the publishers paid per word?

If you need convincing that much of what we are taught about success and the few or single simple drivers of it are, the book might be worthwhile as a tome of evidence. If you require a simple memory aid, there is none better than the 1917 quote of Mencken, “There is always an easy solution to every human problem–neat,
plausible, and wrong.”