Allocating capital to insurance products

A friend “volunteered” me to answer an insurance question from Aardvark on allocating economic capital across different insurance products. After writing a short response, I received the frighteningly useful message: “Error”.

Having written a brief summary of the different techniques used in this really important area, I thought I should use it as a blog post. Maybe “Daan d.” from Cape Town will stumble across this answer eventually.

The question:

What is the standard practice to allow for diversification benefits when allocating capital required between different insurance products?

My brief answer (this is a huge topic!):

There is no standard practice. It’s one of the more irritating and subjective aspects of allocating capital between imperfectly correlated product

Economic Capital doesn’t have to be calculated as VaR, but I will use VaR below as a generalisation. Banks are typically slightly more mature in their capital allocation processes so what I’m describing below is often used in the banking world, but applies equally to insurance (life and non-life / P&C).

Splitting the capital in proportion to the sum of the components is frequently used, but is flawed and usually doesn’t give good results unless speed and simplicity are primary objectives. Continue reading

Mumbling in the dark

Are you outraged at the proposed increase in electricity prices from Eskom?

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Creative Commons License photo credit: Näystin

If you are, you’re not alone. 88% of readers polled in a News24 poll were “outraged” at the increase. The problem is that all this outrage is irrelevant at best, and dangerously distracting at worst.

Why price is the wrong thing to worry about

Eskom produces electricity for the country and makes a profit or a loss doing so. This profit or loss goes back into treasury, which, inefficiencies aside, belongs collectively to the citizens of South Africa.

If prices are too low and Eskom makes a loss, this shortfall must be made up through higher taxes or lower government spending. If Eskom is not given additional capital, it will have to stop buying coal and stop investing in new infrastructure.

Those who complain about the inflationary effects of electricity prices are considering the issue too narrowly. Electricity prices may be easier to see than broader macro-economic issues about budget deficits, growth-disincentives from higher taxes and other implications of funding electricity generation from general taxes, but that doesn’t mean it is the right way to look at the problem.

Expensive electricity is better than no electricity. Complaining about higher electricity prices, while understandable, is not useful since the money must come from somewhere.

The real 5 issues we should be discussing

  1. Is Eskom generating electricity efficiently, and at an appropriate cost (compared  to international benchmarks, adjusted for our local fuel costs and other differences)? If Eskom is not producing power as cheaply as they should, let’s focus on fixing the operational and industrial design problems to fundamentally lower the costs of production. More efficiency benefits entire country. Continue reading