Don’t use Altman’s Z-score for managing a turnaround

I attended workshop presented by the famous credit analyst and model builder, Professor Edward Altman. He is probably most famous for the invention of the seemingly immortal Z score, which is still in use 40 years after its creation in 1968.

During the workshop, Professor Altman recounted a story about how a company managed themselves out of near-failure using his Z score. I’m not denying the facts of the story, and I’m not even saying that use of the Z-score at this company (GTI Corporation) didn’t help the turnaround. I am proposing that using Altman’s Z-score to manage turnaround would be ill-advised.

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Don\'t use the Z-score to manage a turnaround

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.

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