We can’t forefast

GDP growth below expectations and Standard Bank is likely to miss it’s already previously downwards revised earnings target. We can’t forecast. Our biases, overconfidence, wild anchoring on anything out there, herding instincts so as not to be wrong and obvious about and general inability to understand how little we know about the future are clear.

So if we can’t forecast, and so many of our decisions depend on knowing the future, who are we kididng?

Published by David Kirk

The opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and other commenters and are not necessarily those of his employer or any other organisation. David Kirk runs Milliman’s actuarial consulting practice in Africa. He is an actuary and is the creator of New Business Margin on Revenue. He specialises in risk and capital management, regulatory change and insurance strategy . He also has extensive experience in embedded value reporting, insurance-related IFRS and share option valuation.

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